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The Stingy News Weekly: 07/09/2023


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End of an era
"I show that the decline in interest rates and corporate tax rates over the past three decades accounts for the majority of the period's exceptional stock market performance. Lower interest expenses and corporate tax rates mechanically explain over 40 percent of the real growth in corporate profits from 1989 to 2019. In addition, the decline in risk-free rates alone accounts for all of the expansion in price-to-earnings multiples. I argue, however, that the boost to profits and valuations from ever-declining interest and corporate tax rates is unlikely to continue, indicating significantly lower profit growth and stock returns in the future."
[Markets]

When will interest rates matter?
"There are all sorts of crazy things going on here when you consider how inverted the yield curve is, the speed of the rise in rates and the absolute level of yields that we haven't seen - at least on the short end of the curve - in decades. So when is it all going to matter?"
[Economy]

Value of float
"So, reasonably or unreasonably, I am going to assume that 5% is the point Buffett won't go below for long term rates."
[Buffett]

Alternative value metrics
"The researchers showed that these alternative value metrics indirectly exposed the profitability premium and a sector allocation closer to the U.S. market. For example, the hypothetical P/B portfolio had an allocation to the financial sector of 27%, more than twice as much as the U.S. market. On the other hand, the hypothetical portfolio formed on P/CF had a weighting to financials of 16% compared with the market's 13% weighting."
[Value Investing]

The smart debt money
"Single B credit has lower returns than BB credit. Our long-standing opinion is that the incremental yield available from lower-rated credit is erased by higher default and down-grade losses. Perhaps the greatest innovation of private credit is that it is not rated. We suspect that if we could get aggregate credit stats for private credit, investors would be concerned by what they found."
[Bonds]

No right way
"Every indexer makes judgment calls. Yes, there may be choices that are more sensible than others. But there's no one index-fund portfolio strategy that's right for everyone. Instead, the right portfolio is the one that works for you."
[Indexing]


S&P/TSX60 Value Screens

High Dividend Yield StocksP/EP/BYield
Enbridge (ENB)ECA
TC Energy (TRP)DCA
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)AAA
Pembina Pipeline (PPL)ABA
BCE (BCE)CDA
CIBC (CM)BAA
Manulife Financial (MFC)AAA
Power (POW)BAA
TELUS (T)DCA
Algonquin Power (AQN)FAA
Notes | More Info...


Low Price/Earnings StocksP/EP/BYield
Nutrien (NTR)AAB
Tourmaline Oil (TOU)ABD
Imperial Oil (IMO)ABC
Suncor Energy (SU)ABA
Pembina Pipeline (PPL)ABA
Cenovus Energy (CVE)ABC
Manulife Financial (MFC)AAA
Canadian Natural (CNQ)ACB
Agnico Eagle (AEM)AAB
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)AAA
Notes | More Info...


Low Price/Book Value StocksP/EP/BYield
Canadian Apt REIT (CAR.UN)FAC
Kinross Gold (K)EAC
Algonquin Power (AQN)FAA
Teck Resources (TECK.B)AAD
CIBC (CM)BAA
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)AAA
Manulife Financial (MFC)AAA
Power (POW)BAA
Nutrien (NTR)AAB
Agnico Eagle (AEM)AAB
Notes | More Info...


Canadian Stock SummaryP/EP/BYield
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)YYY
Manulife Financial (MFC)YYY
Agnico Eagle (AEM)YY
Algonquin Power (AQN)YY
CIBC (CM)YY
Nutrien (NTR)YY
Pembina Pipeline (PPL)YY
Power (POW)YY
BCE (BCE)Y
Canadian Apt REIT (CAR.UN)Y
Canadian Natural (CNQ)Y
Cenovus Energy (CVE)Y
Enbridge (ENB)Y
Imperial Oil (IMO)Y
Kinross Gold (K)Y
Suncor Energy (SU)Y
TC Energy (TRP)Y
TELUS (T)Y
Teck Resources (TECK.B)Y
Tourmaline Oil (TOU)Y
Notes...


DOW 30 Value Screens

High Dividend Yield StocksP/EP/BYield
Verizon (VZ)AAA
Walgreens (WBA)FAA
3M (MMM)ABA
Dow (DOW)BBA
IBM (IBM)ECA
Chevron (CVX)ABB
Amgen (AMGN)BEB
Goldman (GS)AAB
Coca-Cola (KO)DDB
Cisco Systems (CSCO)CCB
Notes | More Info...


Low Price/Earnings StocksP/EP/BYield
Verizon (VZ)AAA
Chevron (CVX)ABB
3M (MMM)ABA
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)AAC
Goldman (GS)AAB
Dow (DOW)BBA
Travelers (TRV)BBD
Amgen (AMGN)BEB
American Express (AXP)BCE
Caterpillar (CAT)BDD
Notes | More Info...


Low Price/Book Value StocksP/EP/BYield
Goldman (GS)AAB
Walgreens (WBA)FAA
Intel (INTC)FAD
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)AAC
Verizon (VZ)AAA
Walt Disney (DIS)EBF
Travelers (TRV)BBD
Chevron (CVX)ABB
Dow (DOW)BBA
3M (MMM)ABA
Notes | More Info...


US Stock SummaryP/EP/BYield
3M (MMM)YYY
Chevron (CVX)YYY
Dow (DOW)YYY
Goldman (GS)YYY
Verizon (VZ)YYY
Amgen (AMGN)YY
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)YY
Travelers (TRV)YY
Walgreens (WBA)YY
American Express (AXP)Y
Caterpillar (CAT)Y
Cisco Systems (CSCO)Y
Coca-Cola (KO)Y
IBM (IBM)Y
Intel (INTC)Y
Walt Disney (DIS)Y
Notes...



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