Most Recent Stingy News
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| Investing at all-time highs |
| 06/29/26 12:46 PM EST | Markets |
| Ben Felix on investing at all time highs. [video] |
| More Markets: Waiter, there's a P in my E |
| The whirlwind is upon us |
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| Waiter, there's a P in my E |
| 06/29/26 12:42 PM EST | Markets |
| "even if investors are not confused at the firm level, they might well be confused at the aggregate level. The bubble scenario is that this confusion impacts the aggregate stock market, with investors seeing rising E as a justification for rising P, which then mechanically feeds into rising E. Feedback loops, self-fulfilling prophecies, and 'naturally occurring Ponzi schemes' have always been a feature of stock market bubbles." |
| More Markets: The whirlwind is upon us |
| Volatility inversion |
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| The whirlwind is upon us |
| 06/22/26 7:24 PM EST | Markets |
| "It's official: the world stock market is now as wild as it was during the tech-stock bubble. Since April 2026, we've had epic levels of return dispersion. AI excitement is driving extreme price moves, with some large-cap technology stocks up 50% to 100% in a single month. While it's normal for small-cap stocks to sometimes rise 50% in a month, it's not normal for the whole market to be meaningfully impacted by extreme winners. The chamber of dispersion has been opened, the beast of volatility has awakened, and the season of chaos is at hand." |
| More Markets: Volatility inversion |
| Don't forget to say thank you |
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| Volatility inversion |
| 06/22/26 7:18 PM EST | Markets |
| "We'll leave it up to our readers to decide whether today feels a lot more like a blow-off top than a bounce off the bottom. While the AI hype may be real, there certainly appears to be some froth under the surface rising with the tide." |
| More Markets: Don't forget to say thank you |
| Optimistic growth forecasts |
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| Global dividend premium |
| 06/22/26 7:16 PM EST | Dividends |
| "Dividend-paying stocks outperform non-payers by approximately 0.58% per month after adjusting for global and regional risk factors. The effect is remarkably widespread. The premium is positive in 95% of markets after factor adjustments, suggesting that dividend-paying status represents a globally priced characteristic rather than a local anomaly." |
| More Dividends: I Used to Be Cool |
| The case for and against dividend ETFs |
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| Don't forget to say thank you |
| 06/22/26 7:07 PM EST | Markets |
| "Loose financial conditions are inflating corporate earnings and consumer prices. With household net worth at record highs, a growing number of companies are benefiting from the affluent consumers' ability and willingness to pay higher prices. Even so, many corporate executives continue to credit their success to strategy, execution, and other internal factors. Whether the credit belongs to ultra-easy monetary policy, loose financial conditions, or simply another stock market bubble, asset inflation has been a significant contributor to corporate operating results. Rather than taking all the credit, maybe a little gratitude is in order." |
| More Markets: Optimistic growth forecasts |
| Auditors are good stock pickers |
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| The 101 best ETFs for 2026 |
| 06/07/26 6:46 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "We're pleased to present the 2026 buyer's guide to exchange-traded funds. It highlights 101 of the best ETFs in Canada, building on our past efforts. We begin with investing on 'easy mode' using low-cost ETFs that track broadly-diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds. They provide a handy and effective way to capture market returns and are well-suited to novices and experts alike. The guide then travels deeper into the markets to examine ways to optimize, extend, and customize portfolios. It includes specialized strategies and explores interesting market niches ranging from popular dividend and factor portfolios to actively managed ETFs." |
| More Stingy Investing: The Globe's Dividend All-Stars |
| Asset Mixer Update |
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| Optimistic growth forecasts |
| 06/07/26 6:18 PM EST | Markets |
| "The U.S. stock market looks expensive. But perhaps today's high prices are justified by future high earnings growth? Analysts are currently predicting that corporate earnings will grow at an annual rate of around 20% over the foreseeable future. Given this glorious growth, shouldn't we ignore the nattering nabobs of negativism and gaze confidently ahead into the broad, sunlit uplands of bountiful corporate profits?" |
| More Markets: Auditors are good stock pickers |
| The excess tranquility puzzle |
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| Being useful |
| 06/07/26 6:15 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "The point of financial independence isn't to never work again. The point is to find something you enjoy working on (whether you are paid for it or not) and do it with enthusiasm. That's the ambition that people are attracted to, even if it doesn't lead to the largest financial rewards." |
| More Behaviour: Things I'm pretty sure about |
| The tyranny of the complainers |
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| Auditors are good stock pickers |
| 06/07/26 5:42 PM EST | Markets |
| "On average, auditors outperform the Swedish stock market by a large 3.2%, with partners (who have more experience) outperforming by 4.0%. Crucially, industry experts tend to invest more in companies in the industries they cover and are able to generate higher returns there than in industries where they are not experts." |
| More Markets: The excess tranquility puzzle |
| Trading the Same Factor Playbook |
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| AI models are having their iPhone moment |
| 06/07/26 5:28 PM EST | Tech |
| "The models will not disappear. They will stop being the unit of conversation. No one talks about DWDM when they open a video call. No one will talk about the foundation model when they use what the foundation model made possible. This is not good for the valuations of foundation labs and the ilk of Nvidia, who want to come up with new metrics. But the industry isn't stupid. Just follow the Ciena stock from IPO to first 10 years, and you can almost predict the curvature, if not the scale, of the stocks of these labs." |
| More Tech: No permanent underclass |
| Advancements in self-driving cars |
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| The excess tranquility puzzle |
| 05/22/26 10:40 AM EST | Markets |
| "Is the U.S. stock market excessively tranquil? I'm not sure, but it's certainly true that retail behavior has dramatically shifted since 2021. We live in the age of buy-the-dip or at least refrain-from-selling-the-dip. Who knows how long it will last." |
| More Markets: Trading the Same Factor Playbook |
| Priced for Perfection |
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| Trading the Same Factor Playbook |
| 05/22/26 10:38 AM EST | Markets |
| "As factor investing has grown, its rebalancing activity has become large enough to generate meaningful demand pressure in the stocks that define anomalies' long legs - and selling pressure in those that define the short legs. This mechanically inflates observed returns, which attracts more capital into the same strategies, which drives larger rebalancing flows, which produces more price pressure, which inflates returns further. The anomaly, in other words, is partly feeding itself. Perhaps the most striking implication of these findings is not any single result but the feedback loop they collectively describe." |
| More Markets: Priced for Perfection |
| The Wonder Years |
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| Priced for Perfection |
| 05/22/26 10:36 AM EST | Markets |
| "those who underwrite the capex (i.e., asset growth) of new technologies tend not to be the ones who benefit most. In general, they overspend, and the benefits accrue to those who come along later and can feast on the bones of the first movers. For investors who are patient, and who believe the world is uncertain, there will be an opportunity to invest in the transformative technology of AI at a fair price at some point in the future. Likely when those who stepped up to fund the first $5â€"10 trillion of the initial wave of capital expenditures have been steamrolled by some unforeseen development." |
| More Markets: The Wonder Years |
| Name changes as a bubble symptom |
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| The Wonder Years |
| 05/22/26 10:34 AM EST | Markets |
| "While my grandfather was a great teacher, there is no better learning experience than investing through a full market cycle. Managing money through a complete cycle can also distinguish genuine investment skill from simply benefiting from favorable conditions. How will today's young investors respond and be judged when the current cycle ends?" |
| More Markets: Name changes as a bubble symptom |
| America's geriatric stock market |
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| From Dropping Bombs to Dropping Bonds |
| 05/22/26 10:31 AM EST | Bonds |
| "Investors are responding to the fact that the current rise in inflation looks a lot like the rise in inflation during 2021-2023, which was the result of supply chain disruptions. Back then the Federal Reserve was compelled to raise short-term interest rates to curb inflation. Longer-term interest rates, which largely reflect expected future short-term rates, followed suit." |
| More Bonds: The inverted yield curve |
| Narrow spreads |
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| Special treatment for SpaceX |
| 04/30/26 5:04 PM EST | Indexing |
| "We already have a major index with a very short seasoning period. The CRSP total stock market index, used by Vanguard funds, has a seasoning period of five days in some cases. According to Murray and Sammon (2026), this practice produces bad outcomes for index investors. Prices rise prior to inclusion and then fall subsequently; index investors are forced to buy at high prices on day five. They find that in the months following inclusion, prices fall by as much as 10% due to the short seasoning period." |
| More Indexing: Risks of passive dominance |
| Eyes forward |
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| The skip-month mystery |
| 04/30/26 4:19 PM EST | Momentum Investing |
| "By contrast, the 12-0 strategy (which includes the recent month) produced more stable returns across market regimes. This stability came from incorporating the most recent month's information directly into portfolio formation, which appeared to smooth out extreme reactions to prior-month conditions. In addition, the 12â€"0 portfolio slightly surpassed the 12â€"1 portfolio in the full sample." |
| More Momentum Investing: Trend-following still works |
| Is short-term reversal dead? |
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| Long-term money |
| 04/30/26 4:16 PM EST | History |
| "What's common to miss here is that when one generation's life becomes comparatively easier than before, their life does not become objectively easy; they just move on to worrying about higher-order problems that were previously deemed not urgent enough to worry about." |
| More History: Panic season |
| Factor anomalies 1900 to 1925 |
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| U.S. housing starting to crash |
| 04/30/26 4:14 PM EST | Real Estate |
| "Analysis from Residential Club shows that 75% of the largest metro areas in the U.S. saw inflation-adjusted home price declines over the last year. But will this trend continue? And what might we expect from U.S. housing over the next few years? Let's dig in." |
| More Real Estate: The condo crash |
| Bad news for the homebuyers |
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| Positive correlation a terrible reason to add risk |
| 04/30/26 4:07 PM EST | Asness |
| "we generally like bonds as part of an overall portfolio, even with recently higher correlations. There's little else out there that performs as consistently-well during recessions and related environments of falling growth. But if you want to sell bonds and improve the diversification of your portfolio, the leading candidates should be things that are diversifying to equity risk (and ideally to bonds, too, though far less important as, again, bonds don't impact traditional portfolios nearly as much as equities do)." |
| More Asness: Going on in privates |
| Missing the market's N best days |
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