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 05/19   The Stingy News Weekly: May 19, 2024 
 05/18   Cliff Asness interview 
 05/18   Seinfeld on money 
 05/18   Estimating future returns 
 05/18   Diversification is about decades 
 05/18   Far from perfect 
 05/10   The Stingy News Weekly: May 10, 2024 
 05/09   Valuation multiples 

Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: May 19, 2024
05/19/24 1:08 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Cliff, Seinfel, diversification, the future, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: May 10, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: May 5, 2024

Cliff Asness interview
05/18/24 5:15 PM ESTAsness
"Our conversation covers Cliff's journey from studying market efficiency under Eugene Fama to capitalizing on market inefficiencies at AQR. We discuss regime changes in factors, difficult periods for performance and AQR's business, research innovation, machine learning, index funds, pod shops, areas of cognitive dissonance, private equity, and serving on investment committees." [Video]
More Asness: Cliff Asness interview
Cognitive dissonance

Seinfeld on money
05/18/24 4:17 PM ESTBehaviour
"That money became everything. What happened because it was not like that in the seventies. In the seventies, it's how cool is your job? How cool is what you're doing? If your job's cooler than my job, you beat me."
More Behaviour: Bad financial decisions
Lucky vs. repeatable

Estimating future returns
05/18/24 4:12 PM ESTMarkets
"As of December 31st, 2023, the S&P 500 was forecasting a return of 1.34%/year over the next ten years, with no adjustment for inflation. As of the close on May 10th, 2024, that figure was 0.32%/year."
More Markets: Diversification is about decades
Inflation revisited

Diversification is about decades
05/18/24 4:10 PM ESTMarkets
"You don't have to look too far back for a lost decade in U.S. stocks (it happened from 2000-2009). In the 1970s and 1980s, U.S. stocks were closer to the bottom of the pack than the top."
More Markets: Inflation revisited
Risk seeking vs. mitigating

Far from perfect
05/18/24 4:09 PM ESTEconomy
"Looking closer at that time frame highlights that in any 6 month period following yield curve inversion the chances that a recession comes are much closer to 50/50 than 100%. It's a coin flip. As the period moves further out beyond 18 months, the probability of predicting a recession falls closer to the long-term average U.S. recession probability (15-20% of months)."
More Economy: Different this time?
Good economic news

The Stingy News Weekly: May 10, 2024
05/10/24 6:34 PM ESTSNW
This week we have multiples, quality and value, small caps, and more
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: May 5, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: April 28, 2024

Valuation multiples
05/09/24 5:04 PM ESTValue Investing
"the multiples of P/E and EV/EBITDA provide a similar signal. But there can be cases where two companies have similar P/Es and dissimilar EV/EBITDA multiples, or dissimilar P/Es and similar EV/EBITDA multiples. These differences are generally attributable to differences in underlying profitability, capital structure, or tax rates." [pdf]
More Value Investing: Quality, value, or both

Quality, value, or both
05/09/24 4:34 PM ESTValue Investing
"For investors unwilling to compromise on both value and quality, we believe small caps are likely to present the most compelling opportunities."
More Value Investing: Undateable
Noisy factors

Debt narrows what you can endure
05/09/24 4:26 PM ESTThrift
"once you view debt as narrowing what you can endure in a volatile world, you start to see it as a constraint on the asset that matters most: having options and flexibility."
More Thrift: Where it goes
Can the typical person become a millionaire?

05/09/24 4:12 PM ESTValue Investing
"The small cap dating scene remains unattractive, in our opinion. However, for many consumer discretionary companies with debt, equity prices have fallen sharply, and valuations have become more attractive. That said, these aren't dream dates! Cyclical companies with debt often come with a lot of baggage and potential drama. Before committing and getting too serious, we recommend stress testing the balance sheet and cash flow by including periods with high unemployment and tightening credit conditions. And if alcohol is needed to stomach the risk, we suggest patience and waiting for a better match."
More Value Investing: Noisy factors
Japan's orphans

Inflation revisited
05/09/24 4:10 PM ESTMarkets
"Regardless of the starting inflation trigger, we observed that oil and gold performed the best, in our opinion, with equities next. Copper generally had middling performance, TIPS delivered unsatisfying returns, and 10Y Treasurys were consistently the worst performer."
More Markets: Risk seeking vs. mitigating
Not scared of bears

The forever renter
05/09/24 4:03 PM ESTReal Estate
"Last month Zillow reported that there are now a record 550 'Million-Dollar' cities in the United States. These are cities where the typical home price is greater than $1 million. While nearly half of these Million-Dollar cities are in California, the New York metropolitan area has the most with 106"
More Real Estate: Rent or buy
Could you afford it?

Momentum and clarity of trend
05/09/24 3:46 PM ESTMomentum Investing
"Individual investors can utilize momentum strategies without incurring additional costs by incorporating momentum into trading decisions. For example, when rebalancing, they can delay purchases of assets with negative momentum and delay sales of assets with positive momentum."
More Momentum Investing: Momentum works everywhere
Breaking bad momentum trends

Whose tax is it anyway?
05/09/24 3:42 PM ESTTaxes
"I think it's easy to judge the rich and their tax avoidance strategies from the outside looking in, but much harder once you are in their shoes."
More Taxes: The myth of the mobile millionaire
Gains from corporate tax cuts

The Stingy News Weekly: May 5, 2024
05/05/24 8:27 PM ESTSNW
This week is reserved for Mr. Buffett and his AGM.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: April 28, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: April 21, 2024

Warren Buffett at BRK's AGM
05/05/24 8:25 PM ESTBuffett
7+ Hours of Buffett and Berkshire. [video]
More Buffett: Buffett's 2023 letter to investors
Warren Buffett's canvas

The Stingy News Weekly: April 28, 2024
04/28/24 8:21 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Japan, golf, bear markets and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: April 21, 2024
The Stingy News Weekly: April 14, 2024

Risk seeking vs. mitigating
04/28/24 1:44 PM ESTMarkets
"Golfers often change their approaches mid-hole, mid-round, mid-season, and sometimes even mid-swing. It's unquestionably manic. Yet, golfer behavior pales in comparison to investor behavior."
More Markets: Not scared of bears
Invest for the decades

Not scared of bears
04/28/24 1:37 PM ESTMarkets
"Bill Bernstein points to four such risks - deflation, inflation, confiscation and devastation. These are Bernstein's four horsemen of the economic apocalypse, all of which could do major, permanent damage to your portfolio."
More Markets: Invest for the decades
Sector neutrality in factor investing

Bad financial decisions
04/28/24 1:30 PM ESTBehaviour
"After running the numbers, I've come to realize that foregoing lottery tickets isn't enough to move the needle for the average American."
More Behaviour: Lucky vs. repeatable
Keep your investment plan on track

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The Stingy Stocks beat the index by an average of 4.4 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
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2013: Up 37.8%
2012: Up 10.9%
2011: Down 16.1%
2010: Up 69.4%
2009: Up 64.5%
2008: Down 40.1%
2007: Down 5.5%
2006: Up 28.9%
2005: Up 29.2%
2004: Up 29.8%
2003: Up 33.8%
2002: Down 1.9%

Top 200
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The Top 200 beat the index by an average of 4.7 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
2022: Down 3.8% (for subs)
2021: Up 18.7% (for subs)
2020: Down 15.4% (for subs)
2019: Up 5.9% (for subs)
2018: Down 14.5
2017: Up 13.5%
2016: Up 2.8%
2015: Up 2.1%
2014: Up 2.3%
2013: Up 55.0%
2012: Up 13.4%
2011: Down 4.2%
2010: Up 19.7%
2009: Up 41.0%
2008: Down 32.9%
2007: Up 16.2%
2006: Up 37.6%
2005: Up 57.6%

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A nearly two century winning streak
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When the TSX escapes the bear
Investing in bad times
Look to Balanced Bob
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Momentum down
A more generous strategy
Asset Mixer Update
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An inevitable market downturn
The power of reinvesting dividends
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The flip side of tax-loss selling
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