Most Recent Stingy News
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| Crazy days in the stock market |
| 08/21/26 6:09 PM EST | Markets |
| "One thing is for sure: your portfolio should be designed to handle extreme price volatility. According to the famous Warren Buffett quote, you only discover who's swimming naked when the tide goes out. The current situation is a bit more dire; only when the earthquake occurs do you discover which house is well-built. Now, more than ever, you need rock-solid risk management and portfolio construction." |
| More Markets: The wisdom of crowds in markets |
| VIX and trend following revisited |
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| Evidence-based forecasting |
| 08/21/26 6:07 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "Before making any important forecast, investors should ask four questions. What do the historical base rates imply? How is this currently priced in forecasting markets? What is the strongest argument against my conclusion? And whose independent forecast can I average with my own? None of these techniques eliminates uncertainty, but together they produce forecasts that are measurably better calibrated than intuition alone. Since every investment is ultimately a forecast, learning to forecast better may be one of the highest-return investments an investor can make." |
| More Behaviour: Being useful |
| Things I'm pretty sure about |
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| The wisdom of crowds in markets |
| 08/21/26 6:05 PM EST | Markets |
| "The wisdom of crowds is a powerful way to explain how markets capture known information, making them generally efficient (and hard to beat)." |
| More Markets: VIX and trend following revisited |
| When you need the money |
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| The maturation of high yield |
| 08/21/26 6:03 PM EST | Bonds |
| "Junk bonds were once the poster child for cyclical credit risk. Find the market's hottest excess, and high-yield lenders were there to finance it. LBOs, fiber-optic telecom, shale drillers-junk investors showed up for both the party and the hangover. But this time they didn't even get an invitation. The SaaS and AI borrowing binge largely happened somewhere else: private credit " |
| More Bonds: The bond market doesn't like B.S. |
| From Dropping Bombs to Dropping Bonds |
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| The clean-energy advantage |
| 08/21/26 6:02 PM EST | World |
| "They discuss whether AI's power demands are being overstated, how China built its clean-energy advantage, and why the United States risks falling behind on electrification. Plus, Hannah explains why the climate outlook is more hopeful (and more complicated) than the headlines suggest." [video] |
| More World: Hormuz is less crucial |
| The logic of NACHO |
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| VIX and trend following revisited |
| 08/21/26 6:01 PM EST | Markets |
| "The central idea was intuitive: market volatility may contain useful information about how quickly an investor should measure momentum. A shorter momentum window may react more effectively when volatility rises, while a longer window may provide a more stable signal during calmer markets." |
| More Markets: When you need the money |
| Down the stretch |
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| When you need the money |
| 07/31/26 7:52 PM EST | Markets |
| "Over very short horizons, the conventional wisdom holds. A 100% equity portfolio has carried roughly a 38% chance of a real loss over short holding periods. Cash sits near 8%. Stocks are the risky asset. Cash is the safe one. Now follow the lines out. By roughly year 5 to 6, the lines cross. Beyond that point, cash is the riskier asset in real terms and the gap only widens." |
| More Markets: Down the stretch |
| Investing at all-time highs |
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| Down the stretch |
| 07/31/26 7:48 PM EST | Markets |
| "Although inflation continues to be ignored by equity investors, it has become a very important, if not the most important, issue for many Americans. Years of rising stock prices and persistent inflation have led to an affordability crisis and a glaring disparity in household net worth. In the race to identify the catalyst that ultimately ends the current market cycle, we believe wealth inequality has gained significant ground. We are increasingly seeing it show up in the operating results of the businesses we follow." |
| More Markets: Investing at all-time highs |
| Waiter, there's a P in my E |
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| Public microcaps are trading at massive discounts |
| 07/31/26 7:44 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "Private equity trades somewhere between a 0% and 40% premium to public markets, depending on how you account for EBITDA add-backs. US microcaps trade at about a 20% discount, European microcaps at about a 30% discount, Korean microcaps at about a 40% discount, and Japanese microcaps at about a 50% discount to the broad US equity market." |
| More Value Investing: Value is simply dormant |
| Focus on trailing P/Es |
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| The bond market doesn't like B.S. |
| 07/31/26 7:41 PM EST | Bonds |
| "In particular, the bond market, the ultimate reviewer, really didn't like Warsh's performance. As the chart at the top of this post shows, the 30-year Treasury rate spiked and the dollar fell slightly. In plain English, this was the equivalent of bond market traders running for the exits." |
| More Bonds: From Dropping Bombs to Dropping Bonds |
| The inverted yield curve |
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| Hormuz is less crucial |
| 07/19/26 6:00 PM EST | World |
| "Why are prices of gasoline and diesel so high compared with crude oil prices? As Blas explains, because there is a global shortage of refining capacity. Some of this shortage reflects the loss of refined products that were formerly exported from the Persian Gulf. But a big factor now is the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine." |
| More World: The logic of NACHO |
| The Impotence of Drill, Baby, Drill |
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| Most efficient market |
| 07/19/26 5:52 PM EST | Indexing |
| "I look at this data and conclude that the case for indexing most US large-cap exposure is nearly airtight, especially in growth and core, where active success rates are abysmal and the benchmark is essentially free. If investors want to spend active risk anywhere, it should be in markets where the odds are materially better" |
| More Indexing: Special treatment for SpaceX |
| Risks of passive dominance |
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| Intramonth momentum cycle |
| 07/19/26 5:00 PM EST | Momentum Investing |
| "Momentum investing may work partly because institutions behave predictably around month-end. When investors need cash for settlement obligations or redemptions, they often sell their losing positions first. That creates temporary selling pressure in loser stocks during a very specific part of the month. Over time, this repeated cycle helps generate momentum profits.The research suggests momentum is not just about investor psychology or risk-taking. It may also reflect the plumbing of how financial markets operate" |
| More Momentum Investing: The skip-month mystery |
| Trend-following still works |
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| Investing at all-time highs |
| 06/29/26 12:46 PM EST | Markets |
| Ben Felix on investing at all time highs. [video] |
| More Markets: Waiter, there's a P in my E |
| The whirlwind is upon us |
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| Waiter, there's a P in my E |
| 06/29/26 12:42 PM EST | Markets |
| "even if investors are not confused at the firm level, they might well be confused at the aggregate level. The bubble scenario is that this confusion impacts the aggregate stock market, with investors seeing rising E as a justification for rising P, which then mechanically feeds into rising E. Feedback loops, self-fulfilling prophecies, and 'naturally occurring Ponzi schemes' have always been a feature of stock market bubbles." |
| More Markets: The whirlwind is upon us |
| Volatility inversion |
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| The whirlwind is upon us |
| 06/22/26 7:24 PM EST | Markets |
| "It's official: the world stock market is now as wild as it was during the tech-stock bubble. Since April 2026, we've had epic levels of return dispersion. AI excitement is driving extreme price moves, with some large-cap technology stocks up 50% to 100% in a single month. While it's normal for small-cap stocks to sometimes rise 50% in a month, it's not normal for the whole market to be meaningfully impacted by extreme winners. The chamber of dispersion has been opened, the beast of volatility has awakened, and the season of chaos is at hand." |
| More Markets: Volatility inversion |
| Don't forget to say thank you |
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| Volatility inversion |
| 06/22/26 7:18 PM EST | Markets |
| "We'll leave it up to our readers to decide whether today feels a lot more like a blow-off top than a bounce off the bottom. While the AI hype may be real, there certainly appears to be some froth under the surface rising with the tide." |
| More Markets: Don't forget to say thank you |
| Optimistic growth forecasts |
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| Global dividend premium |
| 06/22/26 7:16 PM EST | Dividends |
| "Dividend-paying stocks outperform non-payers by approximately 0.58% per month after adjusting for global and regional risk factors. The effect is remarkably widespread. The premium is positive in 95% of markets after factor adjustments, suggesting that dividend-paying status represents a globally priced characteristic rather than a local anomaly." |
| More Dividends: I Used to Be Cool |
| The case for and against dividend ETFs |
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| Don't forget to say thank you |
| 06/22/26 7:07 PM EST | Markets |
| "Loose financial conditions are inflating corporate earnings and consumer prices. With household net worth at record highs, a growing number of companies are benefiting from the affluent consumers' ability and willingness to pay higher prices. Even so, many corporate executives continue to credit their success to strategy, execution, and other internal factors. Whether the credit belongs to ultra-easy monetary policy, loose financial conditions, or simply another stock market bubble, asset inflation has been a significant contributor to corporate operating results. Rather than taking all the credit, maybe a little gratitude is in order." |
| More Markets: Optimistic growth forecasts |
| Auditors are good stock pickers |
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| The 101 best ETFs for 2026 |
| 06/07/26 6:46 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "We're pleased to present the 2026 buyer's guide to exchange-traded funds. It highlights 101 of the best ETFs in Canada, building on our past efforts. We begin with investing on 'easy mode' using low-cost ETFs that track broadly-diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds. They provide a handy and effective way to capture market returns and are well-suited to novices and experts alike. The guide then travels deeper into the markets to examine ways to optimize, extend, and customize portfolios. It includes specialized strategies and explores interesting market niches ranging from popular dividend and factor portfolios to actively managed ETFs." |
| More Stingy Investing: The Globe's Dividend All-Stars |
| Asset Mixer Update |
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| Optimistic growth forecasts |
| 06/07/26 6:18 PM EST | Markets |
| "The U.S. stock market looks expensive. But perhaps today's high prices are justified by future high earnings growth? Analysts are currently predicting that corporate earnings will grow at an annual rate of around 20% over the foreseeable future. Given this glorious growth, shouldn't we ignore the nattering nabobs of negativism and gaze confidently ahead into the broad, sunlit uplands of bountiful corporate profits?" |
| More Markets: Auditors are good stock pickers |
| The excess tranquility puzzle |
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