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The Stingy Investor Asset Mixer Portfolios | Periodic Table Portfolio by Asset Class Asset Class Start Year Alpha Weight     3 month Canadian T-bills 1970 % Short Canadian Bonds 1980 % Long Canadian Bonds 1970 % All Canadian Bonds 1980 % Canadian Real Return Bonds 1992 % TSX Composite 1970 % S&P 500 1970 % Wilshire 5000 1975 % MSCI EAFE 1970 % MSCI Emerging Markets 1988 % Gold Bullion 1970 % 3 month U.S. T-bills 1970 % 5 year U.S. T-bonds 1970 % 10 year U.S. T-bonds 1970 % Options: Annual Withdrawal Rate (%): Starting Portoflio Size ($): Year Range (3+ years)  Start: Stop: Set Global Alpha Assumption: None ETF Index Fund Average Fund Good Fund Bad Fund Zero Nominal Real pretax returns in Canadian U.S. dollars. Use Historic Random Historic returns. RESET     Results Overall Portfolio Stats (1970 to 2023) Average Gain (Geometric) 8.702% Average Gain (Arithmetic) 8.959% Median Annual Gain 7.978% Standard Deviation 7.713% Total Growth (%) 8954% Total Value of a $1000 Investment $90,535.07 Total Down Years 2 years (4%) Total Years < 5.00% 18 years (33%) Total Years < 10.00% 33 years (61%) Total Time Span 54 years Worst Drops (1970 to 2023) Drop Starts Drop Recovery Time 1981 -5.66% 1 year 2022 -5.60% still down The Portfolio's Worst Years (1970 to 2023) Year Portfolio Return 1981 -5.66% 2022 -5.60% 2013 0.09% 1990 0.58% 2008 1.07% The Portfolio's Best Years (1970 to 2023) Year Portfolio Return 1979 38.30% 1982 22.80% 1985 22.78% 1978 22.61% 1972 21.05% Total Portfolio Return by Decade Start Year Stop Year Portfolio Return 2013 2023 71.54% 2003 2013 96.66% 1993 2003 110.81% 1983 1993 186.07% 1973 1983 332.75% Return vs Volatility (1970 to 2023) Asset Alpha Arithmetic Avg Return Standard Deviation Portfolio -0.23% 8.96% 7.71% 3 month Canadian T-bills -0.14% 5.52% 4.46% Long Canadian Bonds -0.10% 9.02% 10.68% TSX Composite -0.06% 10.26% 16.17% S&P 500 -0.09% 12.33% 16.74% MSCI EAFE -0.22% 11.02% 20.29% Gold Bullion -0.55% 10.09% 25.37% Annual Chance of Asset Class Outperforming (1970 to 2023)* Asset Class 1 2* 3 4* 5* 6 7 8* 9 10* 11 12 13 14 [1] Cdn T-bills 0% 30% 31% 23% 31% 35% 28% 24% 35% 36% 39% 54% 48% 44% [2] Short Cdn Bonds 70% 0% 34% 32% 38% 41% 34% 32% 41% 42% 48% 61% 55% 55% [3] Long Cdn Bonds 69% 66% 0% 64% 62% 48% 43% 39% 46% 39% 54% 59% 57% 59% [4] All Cdn Bonds 77% 68% 34% 0% 53% 39% 39% 36% 48% 42% 50% 61% 66% 57% [5] Cdn RR Bonds 69% 62% 38% 47% 0% 41% 38% 34% 53% 41% 47% 62% 62% 59% [6] TSX Composite 65% 59% 52% 61% 59% 0% 43% 43% 56% 44% 52% 65% 57% 59% [7] S&P500 72% 66% 57% 61% 62% 57% 0% 45% 52% 50% 56% 70% 67% 65% [8] Wilshire 5000 76% 68% 61% 61% 66% 57% 55% 0% 55% 53% 61% 73% 67% 61% [9] MSCI EAFE 65% 59% 54% 52% 47% 44% 48% 45% 0% 42% 57% 63% 59% 59% [10] MSCI EM 64% 58% 61% 58% 56% 56% 50% 47% 58% 0% 56% 56% 50% 56% [11] Gold 61% 52% 46% 50% 53% 48% 44% 39% 43% 44% 0% 52% 54% 50% [12] 3m US T-bills 46% 39% 41% 36% 38% 35% 30% 27% 37% 44% 48% 0% 43% 39% [13] 5yr US T-bonds 52% 43% 43% 34% 38% 43% 33% 33% 41% 50% 46% 57% 0% 43% [14] 10yr US T-bonds 56% 45% 41% 41% 41% 41% 35% 39% 41% 44% 50% 61% 56% 0% * Year range truncated for some assets. Periodic Table of Annual Returns (2018 to 2023) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 +11.1% US T-Bill +25.1% S&P500 +21.1% Gold +28.1% S&P500 +8.0% US T-Bill +23.2% S&P500 +7.2% Gold +24.0% Wilshire +19.8% Wilshire +25.0% TSX +6.8% Gold +23.1% Wilshire +6.9% US S.Bond +22.8% TSX +16.3% Emerging +24.0% Wilshire +1.7% Cdn T-Bill +15.9% EAFE +6.1% US L.Bond +16.6% EAFE +16.0% S&P500 +11.1% EAFE -3.6% US S.Bond +11.7% TSX +3.9% S&P500 +13.2% Emerging +13.0% Cdn RRBs +3.0% Portfolio -4.0% Cdn S.Bond +10.4% Gold +3.0% Wilshire +12.6% Cdn L.Bond +12.2% US L.Bond +1.8% Cdn RRBs -5.6% Portfolio +10.4% Portfolio +1.9% Cdn S.Bond +12.2% Gold +11.8% Cdn L.Bond +0.2% US T-Bill -5.9% TSX +9.4% Cdn L.Bond +1.4% Cdn All Bond +12.0% Portfolio +10.7% Portfolio -0.0% Cdn T-Bill -6.1% US L.Bond +7.7% Emerging +1.2% Portfolio +8.0% Cdn RRBs +8.7% Cdn All Bond -0.9% US S.Bond -8.3% EAFE +6.7% Cdn All Bond +1.2% Cdn T-Bill +6.9% Cdn All Bond +7.2% US S.Bond -0.9% Cdn S.Bond -11.7% Cdn All Bond +5.0% Cdn S.Bond +0.2% Cdn L.Bond +4.3% US L.Bond +5.9% EAFE -2.5% Cdn All Bond -12.6% S&P500 +4.7% Cdn T-Bill 0.0% Cdn RRBs +3.1% Cdn S.Bond +5.5% TSX -2.6% Emerging -13.5% Wilshire +3.0% US T-Bill -6.0% EAFE +1.6% Cdn T-Bill +5.3% Cdn S.Bond -4.1% US L.Bond -14.3% Emerging +2.0% Cdn RRBs -6.7% Emerging +1.2% US S.Bond +0.6% Cdn T-Bill -4.6% Cdn L.Bond -14.3% Cdn RRBs -3.0% US S.Bond -9.0% TSX -3.0% US T-Bill -1.3% US T-Bill -5.0% Gold -21.9% Cdn L.Bond -6.8% US L.Bond Expanded Periodic Table of Annual Returns Annual Portfolio Returns (1970 to 2023) Year Portfolio Return Growth of $1,000.00 Withdrawal Amount 1970 3.60% $1,035.97 $0.00 1971 12.43% $1,164.73 $0.00 1972 21.05% $1,409.93 $0.00 1973 15.97% $1,635.13 $0.00 1974 12.21% $1,834.74 $0.00 1975 6.51% $1,954.18 $0.00 1976 9.88% $2,147.23 $0.00 1977 15.68% $2,483.89 $0.00 1978 22.61% $3,045.51 $0.00 1979 38.30% $4,212.02 $0.00 1980 15.83% $4,878.65 $0.00 1981 -5.66% $4,602.47 $0.00 1982 22.80% $5,652.01 $0.00 1983 7.95% $6,101.47 $0.00 1984 5.43% $6,432.73 $0.00 1985 22.78% $7,897.82 $0.00 1986 19.23% $9,416.33 $0.00 1987 8.00% $10,170.04 $0.00 1988 2.43% $10,417.05 $0.00 1989 9.98% $11,456.47 $0.00 1990 0.58% $11,523.08 $0.00 1991 10.44% $12,725.69 $0.00 1992 6.44% $13,544.95 $0.00 1993 19.37% $16,168.45 $0.00 1994 2.02% $16,495.21 $0.00 1995 12.49% $18,554.88 $0.00 1996 8.39% $20,112.51 $0.00 1997 5.73% $21,264.55 $0.00 1998 11.15% $23,636.15 $0.00 1999 3.64% $24,497.57 $0.00 2000 3.21% $25,284.83 $0.00 2001 1.21% $25,589.82 $0.00 2002 4.97% $26,860.37 $0.00 2003 6.30% $28,553.50 $0.00 2004 4.60% $29,868.11 $0.00 2005 10.34% $32,955.62 $0.00 2006 12.70% $37,141.97 $0.00 2007 4.29% $38,734.82 $0.00 2008 1.07% $39,147.81 $0.00 2009 8.12% $42,326.50 $0.00 2010 11.00% $46,984.13 $0.00 2011 6.21% $49,899.72 $0.00 2012 5.77% $52,779.18 $0.00 2013 0.09% $52,824.29 $0.00 2014 9.90% $58,055.86 $0.00 2015 4.72% $60,796.46 $0.00 2016 4.10% $63,286.52 $0.00 2017 6.35% $67,307.54 $0.00 2018 1.21% $68,118.84 $0.00 2019 11.98% $76,278.02 $0.00 2020 10.66% $84,411.10 $0.00 2021 2.95% $86,903.64 $0.00 2022 -5.60% $82,034.91 $0.00 2023 10.36% $90,535.07 $0.00 Scenario Analysis Scenario Return 1929-32 US-style equity decline (down 89%) -22.25% 1906-07 US-style equity decline (down 49%) -12.26% 1973-74 US-style equity decline (down 45%) -11.26% 1987-87 US-style equity decline (down 36%) -9.01% 1923-24 German-style hyperinflation (bonds down 99.99%) -50.01% Share Your Asset Allocation If you've found a great asset allocation that you would like to share with you family, friends, or advisor then just copy the link below and email it to that special someone. [Asset Allocation Link Is Being Updated] (Hint: Right click on the link to copy it.) A cautionary note This tool is much like a scalpel. In competent hands it is useful but the amateur may wind up cutting themselves. The amateur should seek professional advice. Sources Many thanks to Norbert Schlenker at Libra Investment Management for collecting the data that this calculator uses. Original public data sources include: Bank of Canada, BC Government Statistics, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, Economagic.com, Financial Post, Globe & Mail, globefund.com, Kitco, Libra Investment Management Inc., MSCI, Prof. Werner Antweiler (UBC), Scotia Capital, BMO, Standard & Poors, Statistics Canada, DH&A, Fred, and Wilshire Associates. The calculator assumes annual portfolio rebalancing. Real results use Canadian inflation.

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