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 09/25   The Stingy News Weekly: September 25, 2022 
 09/25   Spreads and recessions 
 09/25   TSX 60 for value investors 
 09/25   Patience of value investors 
 09/25   Stocks vs bond yields 
 09/25   Investing after market declines 
 09/24   MBAs vs billionaires 
 09/24   Alpha and the road less traveled 

Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: September 25, 2022
09/25/22 3:06 PM ESTSNW
This week we have value, spreads, recessions, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 18, 2022
The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2022

Spreads and recessions
09/25/22 1:55 PM ESTStingy Investing
"While the linkage between negative spreads and recessions appears to be strong in the U.S., it has been weaker in our home and native land."
More Stingy Investing: TSX 60 for value investors
Hot potato update

TSX 60 for value investors
09/25/22 1:54 PM ESTStingy Investing
"The low-P/E portfolio fared the best of the bunch with average annual gains of 10.8 per cent from the end of January, 2002, through to the end of last month. It handily beat the index by an average of about three percentage points a year."
More Stingy Investing: Hot potato update
Looking at 10-year returns

Patience of value investors
09/25/22 1:39 PM ESTValue Investing
"Over the eight-year period 2000-2007, the Fama-French U.S. Value Research Index returned 11.0 percent per annum, outperforming the Fama-French U.S. Growth Research Index return of just 0.4 percent per annum by 10.6 percentage points a year. As you saw in the chart on valuation spreads from AQR, today's valuation spreads are very similar to what they were at the last peak in the 'bubble' in growth stocks. While that isn't a guarantee that value stocks will outperform, and do so by significant margins, it's what the historical evidence suggests is likely."
More Value Investing: Abandoning diversification
The size factor

Stocks vs bond yields
09/25/22 1:02 PM ESTMarkets
"The average annual arithmetic expected ERP was 5.40% and the average annual expected geometric ERP was approximately 3.0%. This is slightly higher than the realized ERP values, at 5.0% (arithmetic) and 2.6% (geometric), respectively."
More Markets: Investing after market declines
Alpha and the road less traveled

Investing after market declines
09/25/22 12:21 PM ESTMarkets
"However, once the market has declined by 40% (or more) from all time-highs, everything changes. At this point, it seems like the benefit of doubling down is quite large."
More Markets: Alpha and the road less traveled
Estimating future returns

MBAs vs billionaires
09/24/22 6:22 PM ESTBehaviour
"Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that MBAs want to get rich. Let's also assume that, in figuring out how to get rich, they should probably look at how the richest people in the country - the billionaires - made their fortunes. If we're right in that second assumption, then MBAs are not making optimal career decisions."
More Behaviour: The impact of uncertainty on behaviour
Choosing happiness

Alpha and the road less traveled
09/24/22 6:20 PM ESTMarkets
"With pessimism this pervasive, it wouldn't take many positive surprises to overturn the obvious - and make global diversification lucrative again"
More Markets: Estimating future returns
An edge for retail investors

Hot potato update
09/18/22 2:37 PM ESTStingy Investing
"The hot potato portfolio has served up average annual returns of 15.2 per cent since 1981 by using momentum to jump into stocks during bull runs and out of them during long bear markets." [$]
More Stingy Investing: Looking at 10-year returns
Watching for a bottom

The Stingy News Weekly: September 18, 2022
09/18/22 7:33 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Grant, momentum, retirement, the future, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2022
The Stingy News Weekly: September 4, 2022

Beginning badly
09/18/22 4:56 PM ESTRetirement
"You might view sequence-of-return risk as the opposite of dollar-cost averaging. Instead of buying more shares when stock prices are down, you're selling additional shares at lower prices to generate the same amount of income. This year, unfortunately, provides a good example of how market forces can affect retirees' savings - and their plans."
More Retirement: Changed by the trip
Retirement riddles

Estimating future returns
09/18/22 2:46 PM ESTMarkets
"With the ten-year T-note yielding 3.41%, the S&P 500 at 3946 indicates likely nominal returns of 3.00%/year over the next ten years."
More Markets: An edge for retail investors
Buyback myths

Momentum after valuation peaks
09/18/22 2:45 PM ESTMomentum Investing
"Momentum investing also performed well following episodes when value stocks were cheap. Of course, momentum portfolios did not perform nearly as well as value portfolios, but they did still beat the generic market."
More Momentum Investing: Avoiding momentum crashes
Momentum by day or night

James Grant on inflation
09/18/22 2:39 PM ESTGrant
"Grant will discuss the Fed's about-face on inflation, the battle it faces to bring it under control, the implications for financial markets, and two investment ideas for this new investment era." [video]
More Grant: James Grant interview
James Grant on WealthTrack

The MBA indicator
09/18/22 1:58 PM ESTAcademia
"Technology and private equity have taken share from investment banking, a highly popular field in the 2000s that has lost its luster since the financial crisis."
More Academia: An economist on epidemiologists
Professor Tetlock interview

The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2022
09/11/22 9:12 PM ESTSNW
This week we have value, liquidity, real estate, books, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 4, 2022
The Stingy News Weekly: August 28, 2022

An edge for retail investors
09/11/22 9:09 PM ESTMarkets
"In all four sizes (large-cap/mid-cap/small-cap/micro-cap) the low liquidity stocks outperformed significantly. But, as you will notice, the difference in returns diminished with increasing size. Yes, you will find more illiquid stocks among microcaps simply because of the characteristics of the sector, but nevertheless, even among large-cap stocks, you can put the odds on your side."
More Markets: Buyback myths
Why fundamentals matter

Active fund selection is difficult
09/11/22 8:31 PM ESTFunds
"For active investors, reducing fees paid is the easiest lever to pull to improve the odds of success."
More Funds: Does turnover still matter?
Concealing volatility

The Fed screwed up the housing market
09/11/22 8:28 PM ESTReal Estate
"if you are someone that's considering buying your first place you've been screwed in two different ways. Not only is it now more costly than ever to buy a home because of higher housing prices and mortgage rates, but rents are screaming higher as well"
More Real Estate: Housing shortage
Home sweet whatever

Personal-finance books are wrong
09/11/22 8:17 PM ESTBooks
"Economists tend to offer more rational advice, because they are dealing with numbers; best sellers tend to offer more practical advice, because they are grappling with human behavior - with all of its mess and irrationality."
More Books: Value Investing: From Theory to Practice
5 books Bill loved

Buyback myths
09/11/22 8:09 PM ESTMarkets
"Dividends and buybacks are already taxed twice: when the company makes money and again when the investor receives payment. Taxing buybacks three times is obviously insane"
More Markets: Why fundamentals matter
Lessons from history

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2014: Up 6.9%
2013: Up 37.8%
2012: Up 10.9%
2011: Down 16.1%
2010: Up 69.4%
2009: Up 64.5%
2008: Down 40.1%
2007: Down 5.5%
2006: Up 28.9%
2005: Up 29.2%
2004: Up 29.8%
2003: Up 33.8%
2002: Down 1.9%

Top 200
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2021: New Picks (for subs)
2020: Down 15.4% (for subs)
2019: Up 5.9% (for subs)
2018: Down 14.5
2017: Up 13.5%
2016: Up 2.8%
2015: Up 2.1%
2014: Up 2.3%
2013: Up 55.0%
2012: Up 13.4%
2011: Down 4.2%
2010: Up 19.7%
2009: Up 41.0%
2008: Down 32.9%
2007: Up 16.2%
2006: Up 37.6%
2005: Up 57.6%

Defensive Graham Stocks
+15.6%/yr (CAGR)

2018: New Picks
2017: Up 12.8%
2016: Up 1.6%
2015: Up 2.2%
2014: Up 5.1%
2013: Up 19.0%
2012: Up 26.6%
2011: Up 4.1%
2010: Up 2.3%
2009: Up 2.2%
2008: Down 6.5%
2007: Up 34.4%
2006: Down 3.8%
2005: Up 46.6%
2004: Up 32.2%
2003: Up 56.8%
2002: Up 28.2%
2001: Up 20.2%

More Stingy Investing

Hot potato update
Looking at 10-year returns
Watching for a bottom
Another bear. Oh, bother!
Graphing Dividends 2022
Asset Mixer Update
Periodic Table Update
Hot Potato Portfolio
Graphing Dividends
Where things stand in Canadian dividend land
Chou follows Buffett and Watsa
Book value bargains in the TSX
Asset Mixer Update
Periodic Table Update
The value recovery
2020's lessons on risk tolerance
Asset Mixer Update
Periodic Table Update
Selling in January
Reversal stocks
Don't count out value
There and back again
Fizzy giants
Look to the long term
A sleepy approach to dividend investing
Dividend investing success
Falling dividend yields
A nearly two century winning streak
Moving average momentum
Value stocks are cheap
On the risks of concentration
Standing on the shoulders of giants
The bull market is back
Grim times for dividend investors
When the TSX escapes the bear
Investing in bad times
Look to Balanced Bob
Buying a bear market
Momentum down
A more generous strategy
Asset Mixer Update
Periodic Table Update
An inevitable market downturn
The power of reinvesting dividends
Asset Mixer Update
Periodic Table Update
The flip side of tax-loss selling
Dividend investing under the microscope
Graphing Dividends
The Champagne portfolio
How to invest a cash windfall
Dividend Monsters
The Acquirers Fund
The hot potato portfolio
The Perch Portfolio
The Return Gap
Personalized Returns
The gap
The perch portfolio
Sludgy advice
The Frugal Dividend portfolio
Dividends plus low vol
Two returning megastar stocks
Top 1000 stock picks
A bin of bargains
Fees and taxes can ruin your retirement
The good, the bad, and the ugly of value investing
Investing at a market peak
Trying to time the market
Solace for those retiring at a peak
Buffett's wide-moat theory works
Asset Mixer Update
Periodic Table Update
Top 200 2019
Top 500 2019
Asset Mixer Update
Periodic Table Update
Zombie stocks on the TSX
Bundle up to escape visible volatility
Simple trend following
Canada's top dividend stocks 2019
More ......

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