Most Recent Stingy News
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| The Stingy News Weekly: September 25, 2022 |
| 09/25/22 3:06 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have value, spreads, recessions, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 18, 2022 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2022 |
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| Spreads and recessions |
| 09/25/22 1:55 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "While the linkage between negative spreads and recessions appears to be strong in the U.S., it has been weaker in our home and native land." |
| More Stingy Investing: TSX 60 for value investors |
| Hot potato update |
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| TSX 60 for value investors |
| 09/25/22 1:54 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "The low-P/E portfolio fared the best of the bunch with average annual gains of 10.8 per cent from the end of January, 2002, through to the end of last month. It handily beat the index by an average of about three percentage points a year." |
| More Stingy Investing: Hot potato update |
| Looking at 10-year returns |
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| Patience of value investors |
| 09/25/22 1:39 PM EST | Value Investing |
| "Over the eight-year period 2000-2007, the Fama-French U.S. Value Research Index returned 11.0 percent per annum, outperforming the Fama-French U.S. Growth Research Index return of just 0.4 percent per annum by 10.6 percentage points a year. As you saw in the chart on valuation spreads from AQR, today's valuation spreads are very similar to what they were at the last peak in the 'bubble' in growth stocks. While that isn't a guarantee that value stocks will outperform, and do so by significant margins, it's what the historical evidence suggests is likely." |
| More Value Investing: Abandoning diversification |
| The size factor |
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| Stocks vs bond yields |
| 09/25/22 1:02 PM EST | Markets |
| "The average annual arithmetic expected ERP was 5.40% and the average annual expected geometric ERP was approximately 3.0%. This is slightly higher than the realized ERP values, at 5.0% (arithmetic) and 2.6% (geometric), respectively." |
| More Markets: Investing after market declines |
| Alpha and the road less traveled |
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| Investing after market declines |
| 09/25/22 12:21 PM EST | Markets |
| "However, once the market has declined by 40% (or more) from all time-highs, everything changes. At this point, it seems like the benefit of doubling down is quite large." |
| More Markets: Alpha and the road less traveled |
| Estimating future returns |
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| MBAs vs billionaires |
| 09/24/22 6:22 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "Let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that MBAs want to get rich. Let's also assume that, in figuring out how to get rich, they should probably look at how the richest people in the country - the billionaires - made their fortunes. If we're right in that second assumption, then MBAs are not making optimal career decisions." |
| More Behaviour: The impact of uncertainty on behaviour |
| Choosing happiness |
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| Alpha and the road less traveled |
| 09/24/22 6:20 PM EST | Markets |
| "With pessimism this pervasive, it wouldn't take many positive surprises to overturn the obvious - and make global diversification lucrative again" |
| More Markets: Estimating future returns |
| An edge for retail investors |
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| Hot potato update |
| 09/18/22 2:37 PM EST | Stingy Investing |
| "The hot potato portfolio has served up average annual returns of 15.2 per cent since 1981 by using momentum to jump into stocks during bull runs and out of them during long bear markets." [$] |
| More Stingy Investing: Looking at 10-year returns |
| Watching for a bottom |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: September 18, 2022 |
| 09/18/22 7:33 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have Grant, momentum, retirement, the future, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2022 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: September 4, 2022 |
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| Beginning badly |
| 09/18/22 4:56 PM EST | Retirement |
| "You might view sequence-of-return risk as the opposite of dollar-cost averaging. Instead of buying more shares when stock prices are down, you're selling additional shares at lower prices to generate the same amount of income. This year, unfortunately, provides a good example of how market forces can affect retirees' savings - and their plans." |
| More Retirement: Changed by the trip |
| Retirement riddles |
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| Estimating future returns |
| 09/18/22 2:46 PM EST | Markets |
| "With the ten-year T-note yielding 3.41%, the S&P 500 at 3946 indicates likely nominal returns of 3.00%/year over the next ten years." |
| More Markets: An edge for retail investors |
| Buyback myths |
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| Momentum after valuation peaks |
| 09/18/22 2:45 PM EST | Momentum Investing |
| "Momentum investing also performed well following episodes when value stocks were cheap. Of course, momentum portfolios did not perform nearly as well as value portfolios, but they did still beat the generic market." |
| More Momentum Investing: Avoiding momentum crashes |
| Momentum by day or night |
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| James Grant on inflation |
| 09/18/22 2:39 PM EST | Grant |
| "Grant will discuss the Fed's about-face on inflation, the battle it faces to bring it under control, the implications for financial markets, and two investment ideas for this new investment era." [video] |
| More Grant: James Grant interview |
| James Grant on WealthTrack |
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| The MBA indicator |
| 09/18/22 1:58 PM EST | Academia |
| "Technology and private equity have taken share from investment banking, a highly popular field in the 2000s that has lost its luster since the financial crisis." |
| More Academia: An economist on epidemiologists |
| Professor Tetlock interview |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: September 11, 2022 |
| 09/11/22 9:12 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have value, liquidity, real estate, books, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: September 4, 2022 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: August 28, 2022 |
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| An edge for retail investors |
| 09/11/22 9:09 PM EST | Markets |
| "In all four sizes (large-cap/mid-cap/small-cap/micro-cap) the low liquidity stocks outperformed significantly. But, as you will notice, the difference in returns diminished with increasing size. Yes, you will find more illiquid stocks among microcaps simply because of the characteristics of the sector, but nevertheless, even among large-cap stocks, you can put the odds on your side." |
| More Markets: Buyback myths |
| Why fundamentals matter |
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| Active fund selection is difficult |
| 09/11/22 8:31 PM EST | Funds |
| "For active investors, reducing fees paid is the easiest lever to pull to improve the odds of success." |
| More Funds: Does turnover still matter? |
| Concealing volatility |
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| The Fed screwed up the housing market |
| 09/11/22 8:28 PM EST | Real Estate |
| "if you are someone that's considering buying your first place you've been screwed in two different ways. Not only is it now more costly than ever to buy a home because of higher housing prices and mortgage rates, but rents are screaming higher as well" |
| More Real Estate: Housing shortage |
| Home sweet whatever |
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| Personal-finance books are wrong |
| 09/11/22 8:17 PM EST | Books |
| "Economists tend to offer more rational advice, because they are dealing with numbers; best sellers tend to offer more practical advice, because they are grappling with human behavior - with all of its mess and irrationality." |
| More Books: Value Investing: From Theory to Practice |
| 5 books Bill loved |
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| Buyback myths |
| 09/11/22 8:09 PM EST | Markets |
| "Dividends and buybacks are already taxed twice: when the company makes money and again when the investor receives payment. Taxing buybacks three times is obviously insane" |
| More Markets: Why fundamentals matter |
| Lessons from history |
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