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 12/08   Withdrawal symptoms 
 12/08   Diseconomies of scale 
 12/08   Quality of new entrants 
 12/08   Regretful accelerationism 
 12/08   Years left to live 
 12/03   The Stingy News Weekly: December 3, 2023 
 12/03   More than money 
 12/03   A passive crash 

Most Recent Stingy News

Withdrawal symptoms
12/08/23 9:09 PM ESTRetirement
"After more than a year of working part-time, I fully retired two months ago. Without a paycheck, our bank account balance soon fell to a level where we needed to transfer funds from savings to pay the monthly bills. The amount I transferred was equal to just over half of my fulltime monthly paycheck. The mental anguish was palpable."
More Retirement: Years left to live
Retirement roulette

Diseconomies of scale
12/08/23 7:33 PM ESTFunds
"We find that quant strategies are less plagued by diseconomies of scale compared to fundamental strategies."
More Funds: Performance chasing
Solo vs. teams

Quality of new entrants
12/08/23 7:20 PM ESTMarkets
"We decided to revisit the US small-cap quality question, this time exploring whether the change in quality is attributable to declining profitability of companies that have been public for years, an influx of newly listed unprofitable companies, or de-listings/M&A from highly profitable companies."
More Markets: A passive crash
The case of covered calls

Regretful accelerationism
12/08/23 6:43 PM ESTMedia
"AI-generated content, though, will likely push the situation past the breaking point: yes, the amount of money that can be made from advertising by any individual page is continually decreasing, but if pages can be produced for no marginal cost then the number of pages that will be produced is effectively infinite."
More Media: News you can't use
The news smoking

Years left to live
12/08/23 5:50 PM ESTRetirement
"A key takeaway with life expectancy is that it increases as one gets older."
More Retirement: Retirement roulette
Safe withdrawal rates

The Stingy News Weekly: December 3, 2023
12/03/23 5:58 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Charlie Munger and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: November 26, 2023
The Stingy News Weekly: November 19, 2023

More than money
12/03/23 5:33 PM ESTMunger
"The records of people and companies that are outliers are always a mix of a reasonable amount of intelligence, hard work and a lot of luck."
More Munger: Successful investing is hard
Charlie Munger dies at age 99.9

A passive crash
12/03/23 4:55 PM ESTMarkets
"When the traders put in their sell orders, the same algos that got in front of their buy orders on the way up will get in front of their sell orders on the way down. At that time, we expect the combination of algorithmic trading and passive outflows will create tremendous opportunities for those with liquidity."
More Markets: The case of covered calls
Not always for the long run

Frugal to be independent
12/03/23 4:43 PM ESTThrift
"Most people are wired to seek status and success, not necessarily happiness. It's remarkable to watch someone fight back against that trend. From the outside they appear frugal. But in fact they've rejected what the world tells them they should want and looked deeper, finding their happiness elsewhere."
More Thrift: Died with a big secret
The dark side of tipping

Successful investing is hard
12/03/23 4:36 PM ESTMunger
"Each person has to play the game given his own marginal utility considerations and in a way that takes into account his own psychology. If losses are going to make you miserable - and some losses are inevitable - you might be wise to utilize a very conservative patterns of investment and saving all your life."
More Munger: Charlie Munger dies at age 99.9
Charlie Munger interview

Charlie Munger dies at age 99.9
11/28/23 5:19 PM ESTMunger
"Munger died Tuesday, according to a press release from Berkshire Hathaway. The conglomerate said it was advised by members of Munger's family that he peacefully died this morning at a California hospital. He would have turned 100 on New Year's Day."
More Munger: Charlie Munger interview
Charlie Munger speaks

The Stingy News Weekly: November 26, 2023
11/26/23 5:38 PM ESTSNW
This week we have bonds, retirement, the really long run, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: November 19, 2023
The Stingy News Weekly: November 12, 2023

Retirement roulette
11/26/23 4:29 PM ESTRetirement
"What about the 4% rule? I might use it as a guideline to make sure I'm not overspending. But I'm going to be flexible about how much I spend each year, taking my cues from my portfolio's performance. At the same time, as a cushion, I plan to keep five years. worth of expected portfolio withdrawals in high-quality short-term bond funds, so there's scant risk I'd ever need to sell stocks during a market downturn."
More Retirement: Safe withdrawal rates
Best-laid plans

When you start
11/26/23 4:27 PM ESTBehaviour
"investors who opened accounts during a boom retain significantly higher equity allocations even decades later. The median investor who started out in 1999, as the dotcom bubble swelled, still held 86% of their portfolio in stocks in 2022. For those who began in 2004, when memories of the bubble bursting were still fresh, the equivalent figure was just 72%."
More Behaviour: Taking charge
Superlinear returns

Today's yield curve steepening
11/26/23 4:23 PM ESTBonds
"However, today's steepening results from the opposite conditions. 10yUST yields are rising relative to 3mUSTs'. While the investment spread first appears to be increasing (positive), the impact on existing investments can be detrimental. Falling bond prices (produced by higher yields) could affect other assets and lower their returns. As a result, carry trade profits can compress leading to a reduction in borrowing capacity, unwinding of leverage, forced selling of assets, and lower prices. In this framework, rising interest rates can destabilize financial markets, creating less favorable investment conditions."
More Bonds: Consider a bond allocation
Where are all the defaults

The case of covered calls
11/25/23 9:09 PM ESTMarkets
"Because the covered call strategy eliminates the upside potential, it produces negative skewness of returns (the kind investors dislike). And while it is true that a covered call strategy reduces kurtosis (fat tails), the problem is that it eliminates the potential for the good fat tail (the one to the right) while having no impact on the risk of occurrence of the bad fat tail (the one to the left), only reducing its size by the amount of the premiums collected."
More Markets: Not always for the long run
Death of inflation

Not always for the long run
11/21/23 5:01 PM ESTMarkets
"Once investors accept that stocks can disappoint, no matter the interval, diversified portfolios become more attractive. In an Ibbotson/Siegel world, any portfolio not 100% in stocks must underperform over the long term. Only investors with a low tolerance for short-term volatility can justify mixing in bonds. But if sometimes stocks do well and sometimes not, even an investor with a high tolerance for risk can justify diversifying away from a 100% stock position."
More Markets: Death of inflation
Diversification is not a free lunch

Died with a big secret
11/21/23 2:51 PM ESTThrift
"'He seemed to have what he wanted, but he didn't want much,' said Edwin 'Smokey' Smith, Holt's best friend and former employer. But Holt died earlier this year with a secret: He was a multimillionaire. And what's more, he gave it all away to this community of 4,200 people."
More Thrift: The dark side of tipping
Save more to retire earlier

The Stingy News Weekly: November 19, 2023
11/19/23 6:33 PM ESTSNW
This week we have inflation, withdrawal rates, small caps, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: November 12, 2023
The Stingy News Weekly: November 5, 2023

Safe withdrawal rates
11/19/23 3:19 PM ESTRetirement
"This is where Dave Ramsey went wrong when arguing for an 8% withdrawal rate. This only works as long as you don't get unlucky during the first 10 years of retirement. Given that the probability that you run out of money over a 30-year timeframe is only a little worse than a coin flip (42%), Ramsey's advice is far riskier for a retiree than he might have initially imagined."
More Retirement: Best-laid plans
Bracing for evening

Death of inflation
11/19/23 1:13 PM ESTMarkets
"The reality is that stocks have averaged about 4.4% according to Dimson (2020) or 6.6% according to Siegel (2014). A lot of this depends on which market you look at and what time horizon, but the global stock market has generated nowhere near 10% when you account for real factors like inflation, taxes and fees. And that's important because we don't live in a nominal world. We live in the real world where we pay for inflation, taxes and fees over time."
More Markets: Diversification is not a free lunch
Inflation and the stock-bond relationship

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Stingy Stocks
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The Stingy Stocks beat the index by an average of 4.4 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
2022: Down 13.8% (for subs)
2021: Up 47.8% (for subs)
2020: Down 32.3% (for subs)
2019: Up 0.0% (for subs)
2018: Up 19.6% (for subs)
2017: Up 58.3%
2016: Up 8.4%
2015: Down 1.4%
2014: Up 6.9%
2013: Up 37.8%
2012: Up 10.9%
2011: Down 16.1%
2010: Up 69.4%
2009: Up 64.5%
2008: Down 40.1%
2007: Down 5.5%
2006: Up 28.9%
2005: Up 29.2%
2004: Up 29.8%
2003: Up 33.8%
2002: Down 1.9%

Top 200
+9.5%/yr (CAGR)

The Top 200 beat the index by an average of 4.7 percentage points a year.

2023: New Picks (for subs)
2022: Down 3.8% (for subs)
2021: Up 18.7% (for subs)
2020: Down 15.4% (for subs)
2019: Up 5.9% (for subs)
2018: Down 14.5
2017: Up 13.5%
2016: Up 2.8%
2015: Up 2.1%
2014: Up 2.3%
2013: Up 55.0%
2012: Up 13.4%
2011: Down 4.2%
2010: Up 19.7%
2009: Up 41.0%
2008: Down 32.9%
2007: Up 16.2%
2006: Up 37.6%
2005: Up 57.6%

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