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 08/13   The Stingy News Weekly: August 13, 2018 
 08/13   Fixing chicken 
 08/13   The equilibrium delusion 
 08/13   Scott Galloway bites 
 08/13   Lollapalooza effect 
 08/13   The perfect bet 
 08/13   Estimating the chances 


Most Recent Stingy News

The Stingy News Weekly: August 13, 2018
08/13/18 9:03 PM ESTSNW
This week we have chicken, lollapalooza, bet, bites, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: August 7, 2018
The Stingy News Weekly: July 30, 2018

Fixing chicken
08/13/18 8:58 PM ESTMarkets
"Today on the show, we follow the story of how some shadowy Wall Street investors became convinced that chicken companies were conspiring to charge Americans too much for their chicken." [audio]
More Markets: The equilibrium delusion
MIB: Rob Arnott

The equilibrium delusion
08/13/18 8:55 PM ESTMarkets
"Economics is a discipline for quiet times. The profession, it turns out, ... has no grip on understanding how the abnormal grows out of the normal and what happens next, its practitioners like weather forecasters who don't understand storms."
More Markets: MIB: Rob Arnott
Aaron Brown on risk

Scott Galloway bites
08/13/18 8:37 PM ESTMedia
"The combined market capitalization of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google is now equivalent to the GDP of India. How did these four companies come to infiltrate our lives so completely? In a spectacular rant, Scott Galloway shares insights and eye-opening stats about their dominance and motivation" [video]
More Media: The best investing blogs
Business gone bad

Lollapalooza effect
08/13/18 8:31 PM ESTMunger
"In simple words, lollapalooza effect is an outcome which is far bigger than the sum of the parts."
More Munger: Charlie Munger: 2018 AGM transcript
A conversation with Charlie

The perfect bet
08/13/18 8:09 PM ESTMath
"From the statisticians forecasting sports scores to the intelligent bots beating human poker players, Adam Kucharski traces the scientific origins of the world's best gambling strategies." [video]
More Math: Estimating the chances
Kelly coin tossing

Estimating the chances
08/13/18 8:08 PM ESTMath
"The rule of three gives a quick and dirty way to estimate these kinds of probabilities. It says that if you've tested N cases and haven't found what you're looking for, a reasonable estimate is that the probability is less than 3/N."
More Math: Kelly coin tossing

The Stingy News Weekly: August 7, 2018
08/07/18 9:26 PM ESTSNW
This week we have the loss of aversion, momentum to retirement, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: July 30, 2018
The Stingy News Weekly: July 23, 2018

Loss aversion dies
08/07/18 9:22 PM ESTBehaviour
"The popular idea that avoiding losses is a bigger motivator than achieving gains is not supported by the evidence"
More Behaviour: Open offices make you less open
Mind the gap 2018

Momentum for retirement
08/07/18 8:57 PM ESTMomentum Investing
"Under every withdrawal rate scenario tested, from 3.4% to 12%, the median portfolio managed to more than double the initial investment after 30 years despite withdrawals of various sizes. Further, as a 'risk of ruin' measure, only when the withdrawal rate approached or exceeded 10% did any risk at all appear that the account balance would dip below half of the original amount invested at any time within the 30 years."
More Momentum Investing: Simple momentum
Momentum's magic number

Charley Ellis interview
08/07/18 8:45 PM ESTIndexing
"Charley was an early guest on the show and we reconvened to talk through the full case of indexing for individuals and some of its constraints for institutions. Our conversation covers the case for indexing, smart beta, the retirement problem, investing in alternatives, private equity, and indexing challenges in emerging markets." [audio]
More Indexing: ETFs with Eric Balchunas
Looking past the package

7 strategies that walloped the market
08/07/18 8:43 PM ESTStingy Investing
"For instance, the portfolio containing the 20 stocks with the lowest price-to-earnings ratios (P/E) in the index generated compound annual returns of 14 per cent over the 15-year period through to the end of 2017. It beat the index, which climbed at a 9-per-cent annual rate over the same period, by an average of five percentage points annually." [$]
More Stingy Investing: Value investing for sunny outcomes
The missing table

The Stingy News Weekly: July 30, 2018
07/30/18 9:46 PM ESTSNW
This week we have Arnott, errors, blogs, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: July 23, 2018
The Stingy News Weekly: July 16, 2018

MIB: Rob Arnott
07/30/18 8:16 PM ESTMarkets
"If you are at all interested in things like fundamental indexing, what's wrong with market cap weighting, how large that sector can grow, the advantages of factor-based investing, and I also learned that there are now over 500 such factors, I had no idea, I knew it was hundreds, I had no idea it was that many. This is really a master class in this space."
More Markets: Aaron Brown on risk
Tails, you win

When Oracles Err
07/30/18 8:13 PM ESTBuffett
"Mark Twain was a literary giant - but a horrible investor. John Maynard Keynes was one of history's greatest economists, but his genius for economics was less helpful to his own investment choices than his mental flexibility. Warren Buffett's investment track record is almost without equal, but he once made a $6 billion mistake." [audio]
More Buffett: Warren and Bill visit a candy store
Berkshire Hathaway 2018 AGM

The best investing blogs
07/30/18 7:07 PM ESTMedia
"It's that time of the year again when Tobias and I sit down to pick out one hundred of the best investing blogs on the planet. This year, with so many great blogs, we've extended the list to one hundred and fifty. This list is by no means complete but if you're an investor, take some time to read through the great blogs on this list, they'll provide you with an awesome starting point for your investing education."
More Media: Business gone bad
The future of media

Business gone bad
07/30/18 6:59 PM ESTMedia
"Bethany has covered many of the most interesting stories in business and investing, including Enron (which became the famous book and documentary, the Smartest Guys in the Room), Valeant, Wells Fargo, SAC Capital, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the great financial crisis, and most recently, fracking and the energy revolution." [audio]
More Media: The future of media
Expiring vs. long-term knowledge

The Stingy News Weekly: July 23, 2018
07/23/18 10:20 PM ESTSNW
This week we value investing, low vol, buybacks, and more.
More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: July 16, 2018
The Stingy News Weekly: July 9, 2018

Share buybacks: a global perspective
07/23/18 9:37 PM ESTValue Investing
"For example, in the United States, the S&P 500 Buyback Index has pummeled the overall market, averaging annual returns of 13.98% since January of 1994, versus 9.05% for the S&P 500 over the same period"
More Value Investing: Deconstructing the low vol anomaly
O'Shaughnessy letter

Deconstructing the low vol anomaly
07/23/18 9:30 PM ESTValue Investing
"Research has provided persistent and pervasive evidence that the low-volatility anomaly, at least in stocks, is well explained by other common factors, specifically the value factors of D/P and E/P, the profitability and investments factors, and the term factor. This makes the low-volatility factor redundant for portfolios that already have exposures to these factors."
More Value Investing: O'Shaughnessy letter
Lessons from Jim O'Shaughnessy

O'Shaughnessy letter
07/23/18 8:57 PM ESTValue Investing
"Is Value ever going to work again? Since 2010, the Russell 1000 Growth index has outperformed the Russell 1000 Value index by roughly 70%, leaving many investors wondering if Value's historical edge will persist, or whether, instead, the future will be more random."
More Value Investing: Lessons from Jim O'Shaughnessy
Long live value

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