Most Recent Stingy News
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| Lucky vs. repeatable |
| 04/14/24 8:53 PM EST | Behaviour |
| "In business and investing, you want to learn the big lessons about why things behave the way they do without assuming the past is a direct guide to the future, because it's not - most of the details are not repeatable." |
| More Behaviour: Keep your investment plan on track |
| Happiness research |
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| What global withdrawal rates teach us |
| 04/14/24 8:04 PM EST | Retirement |
| "One thing that I think withdrawal rate sceptics have right is their suspicion that over-relying on the performance of one country isn’t necessarily the best approach for risk management. The top global withdrawal rate portfolios all have heavy allocations to foreign markets either through stocks, bonds, or global real assets. Small bias to the home stock market can be productive, as well as a healthy dose of domestic bills. But if you want to protect yourself from the home economy tanking, global diversification is the way to go." |
| More Retirement: Back to work |
| A quiet life |
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| Back to work |
| 04/14/24 8:02 PM EST | Retirement |
| "Call it the great unretirement. Hit by rising living costs and unexpected feelings of boredom, one out of eight retirees plan to return to work this year, according to a recent survey." |
| More Retirement: A quiet life |
| Seven reasons to work |
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| It's not the economy |
| 04/14/24 8:01 PM EST | Markets |
| "One of the most widely cited surveys papers, summing up all the economic literature on the ability of financial market movements to predict economic growth, said that while economists have often noted some sort of link between stocks and growth, 'upon closer inspection, however, this link is murky.'" |
| More Markets: The empirical problem with competitive strategy |
| Don't bank on the equity risk premium |
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| Where it goes |
| 04/14/24 7:59 PM EST | Thrift |
| "A lifetime of frugality has made such spending and giving a whole lot sweeter. It really does feel wonderfully luxurious. And whenever the cash outflow makes me a little uncomfortable, I reassure myself that such expenditures are indeed discretionary and, if necessary, we could eliminate them and our annual spending would plunge." |
| More Thrift: Can the typical person become a millionaire? |
| Thoughts on spending money |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: April 7, 2024 |
| 04/07/24 2:07 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have value, Cliff, market history, ETFs, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: March 31, 2024 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: March 24, 2024 |
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| The empirical problem with competitive strategy |
| 04/06/24 8:36 PM EST | Markets |
| "There is no empirical evidence that a company's market share predicts its profitability. But that hasn't stopped academics, business school curricula, and management consulting firms from promulgating the idea for decades." |
| More Markets: Don't bank on the equity risk premium |
| Shining moment |
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| Cliff Asness interview |
| 04/06/24 8:32 PM EST | Asness |
| "We talk about diversifying by both asset class and geography, the challenge of managing short-term expectations while keeping a long-term perspective, and ..." [video] |
| More Asness: Cognitive dissonance |
| Why not 100% equities |
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| Cognitive dissonance |
| 04/06/24 8:30 PM EST | Asness |
| "Here are a few things I would've thought were hard for investors to believe simultaneously. I would've been wrong" |
| More Asness: Why not 100% equities |
| Cliff Asness interview |
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| Don't bank on the equity risk premium |
| 04/06/24 7:10 PM EST | Markets |
| "If stocks will assuredly outperform bonds over intervals of, say, 20 years or more, where is the risk? And if stocks aren't risky over long intervals, why should their returns exceed the returns on bonds that are not risky?" |
| More Markets: Shining moment |
| The B-Team |
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| Buying tiny ETFs |
| 04/03/24 4:05 PM EST | Indexing |
| "We went with a NAV trade in this case, deploying $60 million into a $6 million ETF very efficiently in a single trade." |
| More Indexing: Fear of heights |
| Trend to passive investing |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: March 31, 2024 |
| 03/31/24 10:34 AM EST | SNW |
| This week we have value, trading, momentum, real estate, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: March 24, 2024 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: March 17, 2024 |
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| Shining moment |
| 03/31/24 8:38 AM EST | Markets |
| "Where will gold go from here? It's hard to know. Gold doesn't pay any income. As Warren Buffett likes to say, it 'just sits there.' In fact, gold costs money to hold, because it requires storage space and security." |
| More Markets: The B-Team |
| Economic momentum |
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| The B-Team |
| 03/30/24 7:38 PM EST | Markets |
| "we do not believe the current market and profit cycles are perpetual. Like past cycles, we expect many of the trends inflating profits and asset prices will revert and be proven unsustainable. In basketball terms, this game (cycle) isn't over. We plan to keep shooting, finish the game, and are prepared for the final shot. Instead of giving up, we believe valuations matter more today than ever." |
| More Markets: Economic momentum |
| 90% is much better than nothing |
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| Rent or buy |
| 03/30/24 7:36 PM EST | Real Estate |
| "Putting the non-monetary issues aside, the most eye-opening thing I learned from this analysis was that you cannot know with certainty whether buying or renting is the right choice until far into the future. Why? Because of future inflation" |
| More Real Estate: Could you afford it? |
| 7 per cent mortgage rates |
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| Economic momentum |
| 03/30/24 7:34 PM EST | Markets |
| "Strong empirical evidence demonstrates that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models. Brooks, Feilbogen, Ooi, and Akant's study adds to that body of research by providing tests of pervasiveness and robustness, increasing our confidence that the findings of momentum in asset prices are not a result of data mining." |
| More Markets: 90% is much better than nothing |
| Forecasting is hard |
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| 90% is much better than nothing |
| 03/30/24 7:32 PM EST | Markets |
| "Noise is not only a fact of life for financial data, it is present in economic data, health data even data about Reddit comments. As the great Fischer Black said in his prescient article on data noise, published almost 40 years ago: 'I think almost all markets are efficient almost all of the time. 'Almost all' means at least 90%.'" |
| More Markets: Forecasting is hard |
| Why are U.S. stocks expensive? |
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| The trading game |
| 03/30/24 8:47 AM EST | Books |
| "Gary's book is a powerful tale of the industry and the people who work with Gary. And these people are driven, it seems, only by greed and characterised by a complete lack of ethics. These people are empty corporate automatons. And if the reader recognises himself in parts of this story, the question Gary asks implicitly is: What are you going to do about it?" |
| More Books: Die with zero |
| Start many, finish few |
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| The Stingy News Weekly: March 24, 2024 |
| 03/24/24 7:26 PM EST | SNW |
| This week we have quality, forecasting, markets, and more. |
| More SNW: The Stingy News Weekly: March 17, 2024 |
| The Stingy News Weekly: March 10, 2024 |
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| Forecasting is hard |
| 03/23/24 3:18 PM EST | Markets |
| "Although we might not like to admit it, we know that forecasting economic and market variables is tough, but just how tough? A new study by Don Moore and Sandy Campbell sought to answer this question. They looked at 16,559 forecasts made in the Survey of Professional Forecasters since 1968, and found that those making expert predictions had 53% confidence in their accuracy but were only correct 23% of the time." |
| More Markets: Why are U.S. stocks expensive? |
| Why quality stocks perform so well |
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| Why are U.S. stocks expensive? |
| 03/23/24 3:15 PM EST | Markets |
| "But I do think Zack Morris is right to describe the U.S. stock market as a savings vehicle as much as an investing one, thereby earning a monetary premium." |
| More Markets: Why quality stocks perform so well |
| 2023 private equity fundamentals |
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