The Stingy News Weekly (04/24/2016)
New from StingyInvestor
Are you ready for the Hot Potato?
"The Global Hot Potato portfolio, rebalanced monthly, gained an average of 16.7% per year from the start of 1981 to the end of 2015. It beat the classic Couch Potato by a whopping 6.7 percentage points annually."
Hot Potato Q&A
"I highlighted an active approach to index investing in 'Are you ready for the Hot Potato?', which appeared in the April 2016 edition of MoneySense. The article generated a lot of discussion and I'm going to address a few questions about it from readers today."
Publicis put to the value test
"Publicis Groupe was put under the microscope during the final round of the Ben Graham Centre's International Stock Picking Competition. Three teams of students dissected the advertising company and weighed its suitability as a value investment." [$]
Minimum volatility investors beware
"If the long-term benefits of Low Vol investing are actually associated with some sort of Value premium, then current Low Vol investors should beware. Valuation for Low Vol stocks is expensive. A once good idea has run its course. All of the research I have done or reviewed suggests that high current valuation leads to low future return. Valuations on Low Vol have risen substantially in just the last few years. Based on the PE ratio, USMV is 80% more expensive than it was when it launched. In a best case scenario, Low Vol seems destined for mediocre future returns. In a worst case, the correlations and volatilities underlying the ETF's holdings could change quickly, providing an unexpected return profile for investors whose expectations have been managed for downside protection." [Indexing]
Seth Glickenhaus dies at 102
"Seth Glickenhaus, a bond trader turned money manager whose studies of law and medicine failed to lure him away from Wall Street, his professional home for more than eight decades, has died. He was 102." [Value Investing]
"Average excess returns seem to increase in almost a linear fashion from the 1st quintile to the 5th quintile, which gives me more confidence that the FCF/EV ratio does have a direct relationship with 1-year stock returns." [Markets]
How politicians poisoned statistics
"Perhaps the lies aren't the real enemy here. Lies can be refuted; liars can be exposed. But bullshit? Bullshit is a stickier problem. Bullshit corrodes the very idea that the truth is out there, waiting to be discovered by a careful mind. It undermines the notion that the truth matters. As Harry Frankfurt himself wrote, the bullshitter 'does not reject the authority of the truth, as the liar does, and oppose himself to it. He pays no attention to it at all. By virtue of this, bullshit is a greater enemy of the truth than lies are.'" [Government]
The wrong kind of savings
"Negative interest rates are surely a sign that something is wrong with an economy. Normally, people have to be rewarded if they are to be induced to postpone consumption. Penalising them for doing so seems perverse." [Bonds]
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