The Stingy News Weekly (11/22/02)
The Markets This Week
DOW 30: 8,805 +2.63% with a median P/E of 24.5
S&P/TSX: 6,554 +1.50% with a median P/E of 23.3
The Value View
Dow at a P/E of 20: 7,188 (-18.4%) Poor Value
Dow at a P/E of 15: 5,391 (-38.8%) Fair Value
Dow at a P/E of 10: 3,594 (-59.2%) Good Value
S&P/TSX at a P/E of 20: 5,626 (-14.2%) Poor Value
S&P/TSX at a P/E of 15: 4,219 (-35.6%) Fair Value
S&P/TSX at a P/E of 10: 2,813 (-57.1%) Good Value
TD fees target inactive investors
"At the country's largest discount brokerage, buy-and-hold is being replaced by a new mantra: trade or else."
Too much ventured nothing gained
"Now consider the pickle in which the industry finds itself. Venture funds run ten years. To earn 18% annual returns for their investors--the low end of historical venture capital returns--the funds would have to create $1.3 trillion in market value by selling or taking public their portfolio companies over the remainder of the decade. Think about it this way. eBay is one of the few successes to emerge from the dot-com boom. At its peak, eBay had a $16 billion market value, and its venture backer, Benchmark Capital, made more than $4 billion on its investment. So how many eBays would have to be taken public by the end of a decade for venture investors to achieve 18% returns? More than 325. That's roughly one eBay every 10 days between now and 2010."
Japan's horror show
"Battles to slay the corporate zombies haunting the Japanese financial system have the gruesome predictability of a grade B creature feature. The monsters get uglier and more destructive--and they keep coming back."
High dividends are now a predictor of growth
"It may seem too good to be true, but companies that pay the highest dividends are also likely to grow the fastest. For years, many finance professors have taught just the opposite. Reinvesting current earnings back into a company is supposed to promote earnings growth. Higher payout ratios are supposed to be followed by lower earnings growth. But research conducted by Robert D. Arnott of First Quadrant and Clifford S. Asness of AQR Capital Management reveals a very different picture. For the overall stock market between 1871 and 2001, corporate profits grew fastest in the 10 years following the calendar years in which companies had the highest average dividend payout ratio. In contrast, the 10-year real earnings growth rate was the lowest following years with the lowest average payout ratios."
Add-ons add up
"Experienced travelers know they've entered the world of extra taxes and fees the minute they hit the road."
From rags to riches to...
"Edgar Bronfman Jr.'s deal with Vivendi turned out to be a disaster for Seagram and the Bronfman clan. But if he can salvage part of the family business, he may win the redemption he craves."
Where did everyone go?
"Firms are laying off workers even as business revives. That boosts profits - at the cost of morale."
This week's trivia questions are: Q1. Who said "It was the steady investors who kept their heads when the stock market tanked in October 1987, and then saw the value of their holdings eventually recover and continue to produce attractive returns."? Q2. Who said "In the book of things people more often do wrong than right, investing must certainly top the list, followed closely by wallpapering and eating artichokes."? Q3. Who said "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves."? The answers to last week's trivia questions are: Q1. Who said "The worse a situation becomes, the less it takes to turn it around - and the bigger the upside."? A1. George Soros Q2. Who said "In investing money, the amount of investment you want should depend on whether you want to eat well or sleep well."? A2. J. Kennfield Morley Q3. Who said "The time to buy securities is when the media is so full of doom that your trembling hand can scarcely hold the telephone to call your brokers with a buy order."? A3. James Michaels Source: Wall St Wit & Wisdom The Stingy StoreDownload a sample of the Rothery Report Download a sample of Frugal Funds Subscribe Today Bullishly Yours, Norman Rothery ISSN 1499-2795 To (un)subscribe please use our email centre at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Refer to legal & conflict of interest disclaimers at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/legal.shtml http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/legal/conflict.shtml
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