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The Stingy News Weekly (09/29/02)

The Markets This Week

DOW 30: 7,701 -3.57% with a median P/E of 22.6
S&P/TSX: 6,111 -1.47% with a median P/E of 24.5

The Value View

Dow at a P/E of 20: 6,815 (-11.5%) Poor Value
Dow at a P/E of 15: 5,111 (-33.6%) Fair Value
Dow at a P/E of 10: 3,408 (-55.8%) Good Value

S&P/TSX at a P/E of 20: 4,989 (-18.4%) Poor Value
S&P/TSX at a P/E of 15: 3,741 (-38.8%) Fair Value
S&P/TSX at a P/E of 10: 2,494 (-59.2%) Good Value

Stingy Links

Great numbers, weak governance
"By almost any measure, the board of insurance giant American International Group Inc. (AIG ) is a throwback. With 20 members, it seems too large to encourage meaningful discussion. With nine AIG execs holding seats, it includes far too many insiders. It even lacks a single currently active executive among its independent directors. Until only recently, the board also failed to have a separate nominating committee to ensure that its outside directors are truly independent."

Boeing's set to fly solo
"Boeing has decided to go it alone in the flight-training business and will buy out Berkshire Hathaway's 50 percent interest in the 5-year-old FlightSafety Boeing joint venture."

Buffett expects markets to get worse
"Warren Buffett, the billionaire American investor, has given warning that stock markets will get worse before they get better -- but he still believes that equities are a good long-term investment."

Can more yen save Japan?
"Against this background, the latest proposal to revive the economy through massive monetary pumping can only make things much worse. All that is now needed in order to save the economy from further collapse is a cessation of monetary pumping and cutting government involvement with the economy back to the bone. The removal of the government from the economy will put an end to the endless support for various activities which sprang up on the back of loose fiscal and monetary policies and thereby will allow sound, wealth-producing structures of production to emerge."

Beware the embittered investor
"At first I felt disillusion, disenchantment and disgust. Next came anger. And in the end I came away with renewed resolve to fight the special interests that for years have ganged up on individual investors in Washington and on Wall Street."

Which came first?
"Test your knowledge of America's most popular products."

Betrayed by the business press
"Before Congress finishes its grilling, it ought to drag a few business editors and TV stock jocks before some committee or another to explain just how in hell they and their flunkies got this story so wrong."

BoJ takes gamble to avert financial crisis
"Japan's central bank is trying to shock the government and banks into action in a last-ditch gamble to avert a crisis in the country's financial system, a senior Bank of Japan official said on Tuesday."

Buffett: 'My elephant gun is loaded'
"In the financial markets I find it easy to predict what will happen and very difficult to predict when it will happen. I think that things were clear during the bubble as to what would happen eventually. I think that report you refer to went on the internet the same day the Nasdaq hit its high. I did not know that at the time, you know. I have no ability to time things."

Third Avenue's 3rd Quarter Report
"The title of the Op-Ed article said it all - 'Government Can't Make The Market Fair.' I agree. The solution to this problem for OPMIs is to buy in at prices far, far lower than is usually available in negotiated transactions or in purchasing control."

This tobacco war could smoke RJR
"It and Philip Morris are in a costly battle against discount cigarette brands, but its much bigger rival has lots more firepower."

Telecoms troubles
"The crash in the value of telecoms companies has produced corporate scandals in America, raised doubts about the probity of banks and government policies everywhere, and resulted in a collection of top executives abruptly losing their jobs. Now the telecoms fallout in Europe has also entangled the French and German governments into a growing political and financial mess."

The long and short of short-selling
"This isn't a sport for amateurs. The downside is limitless, the subtleties complex. If you have the time to do the homework, here are some of the lessons I've learned the hard way."

Market Trivia

This week's trivia questions are:

Q1. The top 10% of stocks showed five-year earnings-per-share growth of 51.1% from 1967 to 1991. How much did earnings grow in the next five years?
Q2. The bottom 10% of stocks showed five-year earnings-per-share growth of -28.4% from 1967 to 1991. How much did earnings grow in the next five years?
Q3. The top 10% of stocks showed five-year sales growth of 31.7% from 1967 to 1991. How much did sales grow in the next five years?

The answers to last week's trivia questions are:

Q1. What is the median P/E of the S&P500?
A1. 17.5
Q2. What is the median P/Sales of the S&P500?
A2. 1.2
Q3. What is the median P/Book of the S&P/TSX Composite?
A3. 1.72
Source: globeinvestor.com & msn.com


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Bullishly Yours,
Norman Rothery
ISSN 1499-2795

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