The Stingy News Weekly (09/11/2011)
Is Social Security a Ponzi Scheme?
"Social Security is structured from the point of view of the recipients as if it were an ordinary retirement plan: what you get out depends on what you put in. So it does not look like a redistributionist scheme. In practice it has turned out to be strongly redistributionist, but only because of its Ponzi game aspect, in which each generation takes more out than it put in. Well, the Ponzi game will soon be over, thanks to changing demographics, so that the typical recipient henceforth will get only about as much as he or she put in (and today’s young may well get less than they put in)."
The forgotten man
"With equities down sharply, many people are wondering if Uncle Ben and Uncle Sam will once again intervene and turn on the money spigot to prop up equities. Well, before the possible onset of QE3, it's time to consider who's paying for QE2 and all the other intervention strategies to date."
Hedge-fund performance and liquidity risk
"This paper demonstrates that liquidity risk as measured by the covariation of fund returns with unexpected changes in aggregate liquidity is an important predictor of hedge-fund performance. The results show that funds that significantly load on liquidity risk subsequently outperform low-loading funds by about 6.5% annually, on average, over the period 1994-2009, while negative performance is observed during liquidity crises. The returns are independent of share restriction, pointing to a possible imbalance between the liquidity a fund offers its investors and the liquidity of its underlying positions. Liquidity risk seems to account for a substantial part of hedge-fund performance. The results suggest several practical implications for risk management and manager selection."
The Indian who bailed out Bank of Ireland
"When Bank of Ireland faced an imminent nationalization earlier this summer, a group of North American investors pumped in $1.6 billion to keep it out of the hands of the Irish government, in return for up to a 35% stake in the iconic commercial bank, whose roots date back to 1783. The lead investor in the deal was the Toronto-based Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited, led by Hyderabad-born Prem Watsa, who may be a virtual unknown in the country of his birth, but is fast building a reputation as an investment wizard in his adopted land and also within the global value investing community."
Mega Brands merits attention
"To its great credit, management somehow kept the company going while negotiating a recapitalization in 2010, issuing an enormous amount of stock to get rid of most of its debt. Fairfax, Invesco Trimark and the founding Bertrand family participated in the new financing, as did other strong hands, who now own about half the stock."
India Says No to $80 Toilet Paper
"Ordinary conversations over chai in India are now about markets and focus on the contrast between private success and public failure. While the private sector provides cutting-edge services and products to the world, the roads outside are potholed, electricity is patchy and water supply erratic. The difference between the two worlds is accountability: In private life, if you don't work, you don't eat in public life, jobs are effectively for life. Indians believe that they are rising despite the state and are often heard to say that 'India grows at night, when the government sleeps.'"
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