The Stingy News Weekly (05/13/2012)
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Buy Low, Sell High
"“Buy low, sell high” is often quoted in finance. While its wisdom is hard to question, its application is hardly extensive. To understand why this is so, it is helpful to put ourselves in the shoes of a typical investor."
When Julia tried to start a business
"Last week, the Obama Administration released a campaign piece about the life of Julia, showing how Julia benefited from taxpayer largess and oversight by the state at many points in her life. But the campaign piece was incomplete, and missed the part where Julia attempted to start her own business. Long before she started a web business out of her home, she tried to start a retail business."
The devil in HML's details
"This paper challenges the standard method for measuring “value” used in academic work on factor pricing and behavioral finance. The standard method calculates book-to-price (B/P) at portfolio formation using lagged book data, aligns price data using the same lag (ignoring recent price movements), and hold these values constant until the next rebalance. We propose two simple alternatives that use timely price data while retaining the necessary lag for measuring book. We construct portfolios based on the different measures for a US sample (1950-2011) and an International sample (1983-2011). We show that B/P ratios based on timely prices better forecast true (unobservable) B/P ratios at fiscal yearend. Value portfolios based on the most timely measures earn statistically significant alphas ranging between 305 and 378 basis point per year against a 5-factor model itself containing the standard measure of value, as well as market, size, momentum and a short term reversal factor."
The flaws of finance
"James Montier discusses how bad models, bad behavior, bad incentives, and bad policies interact to create perfect storms for markets"
Red tape keeps poor people out of jobs
"One way to help improve the lives of low income people is to focus on how the government can give them more. Sometimes this can be very effective, and even desirable. But a far less common way is to look at how the government can stop doing stuff that is making them worse off. Occupational licensing is a great example of this."
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