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2012
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2011
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2010
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The Stingy News Weekly (05/03/02)

The Markets This Week

DOW 30: 10,007 +0.97% with a median P/E of 36.5
S&P/TSX: 7,664 +0.45% with a median P/E of 34.9

The Value View

Dow at a P/E of 20: 5,483 (-45.2%) Poor Value
Dow at a P/E of 15: 4,112 (-58.9%) Fair Value
Dow at a P/E of 10: 2,742 (-72.6%) Good Value

S&P/TSX at a P/E of 20: 4,392 (-42.7%) Poor Value
S&P/TSX at a P/E of 15: 3,294 (-57.0%) Fair Value
S&P/TSX at a P/E of 10: 2,196 (-71.4%) Good Value

Stingy Links

E-mail subscriptions useful for stock tips
"Every smart investor needs an idea machine. You know, something to churn out ideas for stocks and mutual funds that can be investigated as possible additions to one's portfolio. A great way to get a flow of ideas going is to subscribe to the free e-mails sent out on a daily or weekly basis by a number of investing Web sites..."

Warren's piece
"Both Buffett and Munger left no question they find the pickings slim in the stock market. Asked about the relative weight of equities compared to bonds and cash in Berkshire's portfolio, Munger said dryly, 'Our constraint does not come from structure; it comes from our lack of enthusiasm for stocks, generally.'"

Buffett: 'I can't recall ever having more fun'
"Behind that grin is a track record that put a lid on critics who had questioned his ability to keep pace with the New Economy: Berkshire stock is up nearly 35% for the past two years, while the S&P 500 is down nearly 25% for the same period."

CEO's: fallen idols
"The vehemence of today's reaction against business leaders is partly a reflection of how far their companies' shares have fallen, and also of the extent of their personal greed."

New cause for caution on stocks
"Now Dimson's team has created the first full, global picture of how equities performed over the past century. Among the 16 nations the team studied, stocks beat bonds and cash by an average of 4 to 6 points a year. From this, the scholars draw a startling conclusion: putting all your money in stocks is a bad idea. Why? First, most previous research showed stocks beating bonds and cash by a much wider 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 points a year. Second, a big chunk of the rise in stock returns came from the democratization of investing, starting in the 1970s. With mutual funds offering instant diversification, stocks suddenly became safer. "That can't happen again," says Dimson."

Don't count on cash flow
"Truth seekers, we have bad news for you. Like everything else in financial statements, even cash flow is corruptible--or at least subject to quality issues of its own. And while cash flow may be harder to manipulate than earnings, Mulford says, there's a "surprising amount of flexibility" in how cash flow can be reported. That's critical if you're considering this measure as a clue to how solid earnings really are."

Apple concentrate tariff
"Apples might be a particularly tart example of U.S. anticompetitiveness, but they are hardly the only illustration of U.S. agricultural policies that hurt consumers, inflate prices, and alienate other countries."

Trouble in the boardroom
"Scandal. Lawsuits. Tarnished reputations. Oh, how the life of corporate directors has changed! It used to be that a boardroom seat was the plushest of gigs. You got paid lavishly to hobnob with the rich and mighty, swap gossip over a pleasant poached-salmon lunch, and jet home."

The AOL TW black hole
"The verdict is finally in: The AOL Time Warner merger should not have happened. That's the message from last week's latest balance sheet convulsion to shake what was once known reverentially in certain parts as the House Of Luce."

Meet your new neighborhood grocer
"Wal-Mart has muscled its way into the food business. Now competitors are scrambling to keep up."

Market Trivia

The trivia questions this week are:
Q1. Who said "You talk generally about stock options plans in America and you have seen a lot of terrible behavior"?
Q2. Who said "You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will."?
Q3. Who said "A lot is horribly wrong in corporate compensation in America"?

The answers for last week's trivia questions are:
Q1. Which S&P 500 company has the highest sales?
A1. Wal-Mart (WMT)
Q2. Which S&P 500 stock has the largest market cap?
A2. General Electric (GE)
Q3. Which S&P 500 company has the highest earnings yield?
A3. Edison International (EIX)

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Bullishly Yours,
Norman Rothery
ISSN 1499-2795

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