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Stingy News Quarterly 2008: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2007: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2006: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2001: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Stingy News Weekly 2009 01: 04 2008 12: 07 14 21 28 11: 02 09 16 23 30 10: 05 12 19 26 09: 07 14 21 28 08: 01 10 17 24 31 07: 06 13 20 27 06: 01 08 15 22 29 05: 04 11 18 25 04: 06 13 20 27 03: 02 09 16 23 30 02: 03 10 17 24 01: 06 13 20 27 Dan's Reports Perspective on the bear Dilution excessive Fund fees revisited T class funds Bonds vs. bond funds Bear market protectors Investing in bonds Ignore bonds at your peril Coping with change Future of trust funds Dilution trumps Are fees excessive? Performance anxiety Top advisory model? 81-106 a step back Poor fund classifications Pension shortfall A longer-term report card Information overload About Dan Privacy Policy |
The Stingy News Weekly (03/16/2008)"You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you." - Benjamin Graham Stingy Links http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml How value investor Chou wins with bonds http://www.theglobeandmail.com/partners/free/globeinvestor/income/feb08/online/chou.html "When you read about investment stars, portfolio managers who score high double digit and even triple digit annual gains, managers of bond portfolios usually aren't there. The reason - bonds are a different game, one where risk is less courted than avoided. But when the dust settles after big market busts, it's often the bond managers who are still standing. Francis Chou, 52, of Chou Associates Management Inc., is one of those survivors. His $90-million Chou Bond Fund (US$), established in the fall of 2005, soared to the No. 1 spot among 65 funds in the high yield sector with an average annual compound gain of 10.4 per cent for the two years ended Feb. 29, 2008, far above the 1.5 per cent average annual compound gain of peers in the period." The next shoe to drop in housing http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/conformingloans/index.htm?postversion=2008031513 "The credit crunch has finally hit the traditional mortgage market. Investors are now shunning mortgage-backed securities issued by government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been critical in keeping the real estate market from completely falling apart. Some fear this development will make it harder for people, even those with strong credit histories, to get a home loan." What Citigroup says isn't what it does http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIGRziUnaXjE&refer=home "Real estate developer John Wimmer paid Citigroup Global Markets Realty Corp. almost $1 million last year to lock in a 5.6 percent mortgage rate on the refinancing of six commercial properties. At the November closings, Citigroup, citing plummeting demand for mortgage bonds, boosted the rate to 7.123 percent." F.D.R.'s safety net gets a big stretch http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/15/business/15regulate.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin "It was an old-fashioned bank run that forced Bear Stearns to turn to the government for salvation on Friday. The difference is that Bear Stearns is not a commercial bank, and is therefore not eligible for the protections those banks received 75 years ago when Franklin D. Roosevelt halted bank runs with government guarantees. Bear was, instead, emblematic of a financial system that grew up over the last two decades, one that largely marginalized traditional banking and that enabled lenders to evade much of the regulatory framework that had also begun during the Roosevelt administration." Bear Stearns gets emergency funds http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arOurF_ov.pk&refer=home "Bear Stearns Cos., teetering on the brink of collapse from a lack of cash, got emergency funding from the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the largest government bailout of a U.S. securities firm. After denying earlier this week that access to capital was at risk, Bear Stearns Chief Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said today that the 85-year-old company's cash position had 'significantly deteriorated' in the past 24 hours. The central bank agreed to provide financing through JPMorgan for up to 28 days, the bank said in a statement today." Lenders face still more misery http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_12/b4076000633410.htm "A closer look at the books of big lenders reveals several weak spots that haven't yet shown up in the financial results. At many banks, bad loans are piling up faster than the amount of money they're setting aside to cover them. Meanwhile, housing lenders booked income on vulnerable exotic loans and mortgage securities before they collected the money - paper gains that may be reversed through writedowns. Plus the values of some troubled loans, which have been trimmed modestly so far and shown up in previous losses, could still be overstated. Why haven't these items hit lenders' bottom lines? Largely because of the ambiguity and complexities of the accounting rules. Banks have a lot of wiggle room when it comes to reporting the profits and values of complex loans and securities. For one thing, their earnings can far exceed the amount of cash coming in the door. At the same time, their losses aren't always based on hard numbers but rather on debatable judgment calls. With the housing market showing no signs of recovery anytime soon, it's becoming clear that some of their assumptions have been overly optimistic." Wall Street fears a big US bank is in trouble http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3542775.ece "Global stock markets may have cheered the US Federal Reserve yesterday, but on Wall Street the Fed's unprecedented move to pump $280 billion into global markets was seen as a sure sign that at least one financial institution was struggling to survive." Just think, the fees you could charge Buffett http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66ae8474-efd8-11dc-8a17-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1 "The news that Warren Buffett is now the world's richest man led to the predictable round of stories about his frugal habits - the cherry Coke, the well-done steaks and the bungalow in Omaha that has been home for 50 years. There is a point here. Like Bill Gates, whom he has toppled from the top spot, Mr Buffett is primarily interested in the business rather than the wealth that results. Money is a means of keeping score rather than an objective in its own right: the fun, Mr Buffett has said, is watching it grow." The Fed can't fix home prices http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120528077518628769.html?mod=todays_us_opinion "Where are the speculators, vultures and hedge funds? Where are the big money players willing to buy the exotic but still substantial mortgage-backed securities for which markets have ceased? The Fed's liquidity rush seems only to have convinced them the time is ripe for staying on the sidelines. To get to a real solution, speculators and investors need to believe that home prices are hitting bottom, that any mortgage debt they might buy today for 80 cents on the dollar today won't be worth 30 cents tomorrow. Then the vultures will pile in: The transfer of wealth from the overleveraged banks and hedge funds to those who kept cash handy will be shocking, ugly and cathartic -- but it will also be relatively quick. Credit markets will begin to function again. The economy will grow." Loophole lets bank rewrite the calendar http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/business/07norris.html?_r=1&oref=slogin "In its financial statements for 2007, the French bank takes the loss in that year, offsetting it against 1.5 billion euros in profit that it says was earned by a trader, Jerome Kerviel, who concealed from management the fact he was making huge bets in financial futures markets." Moody's, S&P defer cuts on AAA subprime http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=areM7a9s02ko&refer=home "Even after downgrading almost 10,000 subprime-mortgage bonds, Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service haven't cut the ones that matter most: AAA securities that are the mainstays of bank and insurance company investments. None of the 80 AAA securities in ABX indexes that track subprime bonds meet the criteria S&P had even before it toughened ratings standards in February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg." Try, try again http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2008/03/11/bernanke-policy-borrowing-biz-cx_lm_0311fed.html "The U.S. Federal Reserve has come up with yet another way to kick-start the credit markets, if only its innovations would start working already. On Tuesday, the central bank said it is expanding its securities lending operations, allowing big Wall Street firms to borrow for longer periods and, for the first time, exchange triple-A mortgages not backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac for Treasury bonds. That is to say, the Fed will let the big brokerages offload their hard-to-sell mortgage holdings for easy-to-sell Treasury bonds." Hedge Funds reel from margin calls on treasuries http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqcXY9R7AbkY&refer=home "The hedge-fund industry is reeling from its worst crisis in a decade as banks are now demanding more money pledged to support outstanding loans even when the investment is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States." S&P/TSX60 Value Screens http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml High Dividend Yield Stocks P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield* ============================================== === === === === === ====== Biovail (BVF) 5 5 3 5 5 5 Bank of Montreal (BMO) 5 5 5 1 5 5 CIBC (CM) 2 4 5 5 5 5 National Bank of Canada (NA) 3 4 5 5 5 5 Royal Bank (RY) 4 3 4 5 5 5 Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 4 3 4 2 5 5 Telus (T) 3 4 4 5 5 5 Shaw Comm Cl.B (SJR.B) 2 2 2 4 5 5 BCE (BCE) 3 3 4 4 5 5 Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 4 4 3 2 4 4 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml Value Ratio Stocks P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D VR ============================================== === === === === === ===== Biovail (BVF) 5 5 3 5 5 0.5 Bank of Montreal (BMO) 5 5 5 1 5 1.4 Thomson (TOC) 5 4 2 2 4 1.9 National Bank of Canada (NA) 3 4 5 5 5 2.5 Royal Bank (RY) 4 3 4 5 5 2.5 Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) 4 3 4 2 5 2.6 Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) 4 4 3 2 4 2.8 Telus (T) 3 4 4 5 5 3.2 BCE (BCE) 3 3 4 4 5 3.4 Sun Life (SLF) 4 5 4 1 4 3.5 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml Graham Stocks P/E P/B P/D G$ dG$(%) ============================================== === === === ====== ====== ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. (ACE.B) 5 5 0 92.78 330.15 MDS Inc. (MDS) 5 5 0 47.26 172.39 Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN) 5 5 0 18.39 141.36 Biovail (BVF) 5 5 5 19.60 58.33 Thomson (TOC) 5 4 4 55.72 53.08 Magna Cl.A (MG.A) 4 5 3 104.55 49.34 Bank of Montreal (BMO) 5 5 5 50.34 25.31 Petro Canada (PCA) 5 4 2 53.97 16.89 Sun Life (SLF) 4 5 4 49.40 10.38 Canadian Pacific Rail (CP) 4 4 2 70.08 7.70 Canadian Tire Corporation Limited (CTC.A) 4 4 2 66.19 5.46 Talisman Energy (TLM) 5 3 2 18.22 5.23 More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml *Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml Switch to the HTML version if the tables aren't formatted properly. http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Books for Stingy Investors A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton G. Malkiel Take a random walk down Wall Street and you'll learn a great deal about market history and current market theory. This book provides an excellent introduction to the markets and gives readers a good grounding in the efficient market hypothesis. Along the way Malkiel makes a very strong case for indexing but even active investors will find a great deal of useful information in his book. Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0393325350/ Stock Research From Dan Hallett & Associates The Rothery Report http://www.rotheryreport.com/ The Rothery Report provides research on select deep-value stocks in North America. Discover overlooked and undervalued stocks in quarterly investment reports which provide detailed analysis of Canadian and U.S. stocks. Weekly email news and additional updates keep subscribers informed about new opportunities and developments. Rothery Report Performance (03/31/2001 to 12/31/2007) Average Capital Gain Average Holding Period 45.2% 2.4 Years Learn More http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/store.shtml Subscribe Today http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/order.shtml If you'd like to suggest The Stingy News to a friend, please point them to: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Please visit the StingyInvestor website at http://www.stingyinvestor.com To (un)subscribe please use our email centre at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/cgi-bin/email.cgi Email comments or questions to info@stingyinvestor.com Refer to legal & conflict of interest disclaimers at http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/legal.shtml Privacy Policy http://www.ndir.com/SI/legal/privacy.shtml We do not rent or sell our email list to third parties. ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Dan Hallett and Associates Inc., 2008. All rights reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not appropriate for all investors. Consult your professional investment advisor before making any investment decision. While all reasonable effort is made to ensure the accuracy of information and data contained herein, accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is not a good predictor of future performance. Results are not guaranteed and we assume no liability whatsoever for any material losses that may occur. No compensation for suggesting particular securities or financial advisors is solicited or accepted. The information in this newsletter, and in its related website, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or recommendations. Investing in stocks can be risky and may result in substantial losses. A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc.(DH&A) publication. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. | ||||
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A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. publication. Norm Rothery, Ph.D., CFA, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. (DH&A) and the founder of StingyInvestor.com. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. Norm, DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. More... | |||||