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2008: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2007: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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2003: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2002: Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
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Stingy News Weekly
2009
  01: 04
2008
  12: 07 14 21 28
  11: 02 09 16 23 30
  10: 05 12 19 26
  09: 07 14 21 28
  08: 01 10 17 24 31
  07: 06 13 20 27
  06: 01 08 15 22 29
  05: 04 11 18 25
  04: 06 13 20 27
  03: 02 09 16 23 30
  02: 03 10 17 24
  01: 06 13 20 27

Dan's Reports
  Perspective on the bear
  Dilution excessive
  Fund fees revisited
  T class funds
  Bonds vs. bond funds
  Bear market protectors
  Investing in bonds
  Ignore bonds at your peril
  Coping with change
  Future of trust funds
  Dilution trumps
  Are fees excessive?
  Performance anxiety
  Top advisory model?
  81-106 a step back
  Poor fund classifications
  Pension shortfall
  A longer-term report card
  Information overload
About Dan

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The Stingy News Weekly (03/16/2008)

"You are neither right nor wrong because people agree with you."  - Benjamin Graham


Stingy Links
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml

How value investor Chou wins with bonds
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/partners/free/globeinvestor/income/feb08/online/chou.html
"When you read about investment stars, portfolio managers who score high
double digit and even triple digit annual gains, managers of bond portfolios
usually aren't there. The reason - bonds are a different game, one where
risk is less courted than avoided. But when the dust settles after big
market busts, it's often the bond managers who are still standing. Francis
Chou, 52, of Chou Associates Management Inc., is one of those survivors. His
$90-million Chou Bond Fund (US$), established in the fall of 2005, soared
to the No. 1 spot among 65 funds in the high yield sector with an average
annual compound gain of 10.4 per cent for the two years ended Feb. 29,
2008, far above the 1.5 per cent average annual compound gain of peers in
the period."

The next shoe to drop in housing
http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/13/news/economy/conformingloans/index.htm?postversion=2008031513
"The credit crunch has finally hit the traditional mortgage market.
Investors are now shunning mortgage-backed securities issued by government
sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which have been critical in
keeping the real estate market from completely falling apart. Some fear this
development will make it harder for people, even those with strong credit
histories, to get a home loan."

What Citigroup says isn't what it does
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aIGRziUnaXjE&refer=home
"Real estate developer John Wimmer paid Citigroup Global Markets Realty
Corp. almost $1 million last year to lock in a 5.6 percent mortgage rate on
the refinancing of six commercial properties. At the November closings,
Citigroup, citing plummeting demand for mortgage bonds, boosted the rate to
7.123 percent."

F.D.R.'s safety net gets a big stretch
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/15/business/15regulate.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
"It was an old-fashioned bank run that forced Bear Stearns to turn to the
government for salvation on Friday. The difference is that Bear Stearns is
not a commercial bank, and is therefore not eligible for the protections
those banks received 75 years ago when Franklin D. Roosevelt halted bank
runs with government guarantees. Bear was, instead, emblematic of a
financial system that grew up over the last two decades, one that largely
marginalized traditional banking and that enabled lenders to evade much of the
regulatory framework that had also begun during the Roosevelt
administration."

Bear Stearns gets emergency funds
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=arOurF_ov.pk&refer=home
"Bear Stearns Cos., teetering on the brink of collapse from a lack of cash,
got emergency funding from the Federal Reserve and JPMorgan Chase & Co.
in the largest government bailout of a U.S. securities firm. After denying
earlier this week that access to capital was at risk, Bear Stearns Chief
Executive Officer Alan Schwartz said today that the 85-year-old company's
cash position had 'significantly deteriorated' in the past 24 hours. The
central bank agreed to provide financing through JPMorgan for up to 28 days,
the bank said in a statement today."

Lenders face still more misery
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_12/b4076000633410.htm
"A closer look at the books of big lenders reveals several weak spots that
haven't yet shown up in the financial results. At many banks, bad loans
are piling up faster than the amount of money they're setting aside to cover
them. Meanwhile, housing lenders booked income on vulnerable exotic loans
and mortgage securities before they collected the money - paper gains
that may be reversed through writedowns. Plus the values of some troubled
loans, which have been trimmed modestly so far and shown up in previous
losses, could still be overstated. Why haven't these items hit lenders' bottom
lines? Largely because of the ambiguity and complexities of the accounting
rules. Banks have a lot of wiggle room when it comes to reporting the
profits and values of complex loans and securities. For one thing, their
earnings can far exceed the amount of cash coming in the door. At the same
time, their losses aren't always based on hard numbers but rather on
debatable judgment calls. With the housing market showing no signs of recovery
anytime soon, it's becoming clear that some of their assumptions have been
overly optimistic."

Wall Street fears a big US bank is in trouble
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3542775.ece
"Global stock markets may have cheered the US Federal Reserve yesterday,
but on Wall Street the Fed's unprecedented move to pump $280 billion into
global markets was seen as a sure sign that at least one financial
institution was struggling to survive."

Just think, the fees you could charge Buffett
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/66ae8474-efd8-11dc-8a17-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
"The news that Warren Buffett is now the world's richest man led to the
predictable round of stories about his frugal habits - the cherry Coke, the
well-done steaks and the bungalow in Omaha that has been home for 50 years.
There is a point here. Like Bill Gates, whom he has toppled from the top
spot, Mr Buffett is primarily interested in the business rather than the
wealth that results. Money is a means of keeping score rather than an
objective in its own right: the fun, Mr Buffett has said, is watching it grow."

The Fed can't fix home prices
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120528077518628769.html?mod=todays_us_opinion
"Where are the speculators, vultures and hedge funds? Where are the big
money players willing to buy the exotic but still substantial mortgage-backed
securities for which markets have ceased? The Fed's liquidity rush seems
only to have convinced them the time is ripe for staying on the sidelines.
To get to a real solution, speculators and investors need to believe that
home prices are hitting bottom, that any mortgage debt they might buy
today for 80 cents on the dollar today won't be worth 30 cents tomorrow. Then
the vultures will pile in: The transfer of wealth from the overleveraged
banks and hedge funds to those who kept cash handy will be shocking, ugly
and cathartic -- but it will also be relatively quick. Credit markets will
begin to function again. The economy will grow."

Loophole lets bank rewrite the calendar
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/business/07norris.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
"In its financial statements for 2007, the French bank takes the loss in
that year, offsetting it against 1.5 billion euros in profit that it says
was earned by a trader, Jerome Kerviel, who concealed from management the
fact he was making huge bets in financial futures markets."

Moody's, S&P defer cuts on AAA subprime
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=areM7a9s02ko&refer=home
"Even after downgrading almost 10,000 subprime-mortgage bonds, Standard &
Poor's and Moody's Investors Service haven't cut the ones that matter most:
AAA securities that are the mainstays of bank and insurance company
investments. None of the 80 AAA securities in ABX indexes that track subprime
bonds meet the criteria S&P had even before it toughened ratings standards
in February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

Try, try again
http://www.forbes.com/home/business/2008/03/11/bernanke-policy-borrowing-biz-cx_lm_0311fed.html
"The U.S. Federal Reserve has come up with yet another way to kick-start
the credit markets, if only its innovations would start working already. On
Tuesday, the central bank said it is expanding its securities lending
operations, allowing big Wall Street firms to borrow for longer periods and,
for the first time, exchange triple-A mortgages not backed by Fannie Mae or
Freddie Mac for Treasury bonds. That is to say, the Fed will let the big
brokerages offload their hard-to-sell mortgage holdings for easy-to-sell
Treasury bonds."

Hedge Funds reel from margin calls on treasuries
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqcXY9R7AbkY&refer=home
"The hedge-fund industry is reeling from its worst crisis in a decade as
banks are now demanding more money pledged to support outstanding loans even
when the investment is backed by the full faith and credit of the United
States."


S&P/TSX60 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks                     P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield*
============================================== === === === === === ======
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   3   5   5    5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                          5   5   5   1   5    5
CIBC (CM)                                       2   4   5   5   5    5
National Bank of Canada (NA)                    3   4   5   5   5    5
Royal Bank (RY)                                 4   3   4   5   5    5
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                       4   3   4   2   5    5
Telus (T)                                       3   4   4   5   5    5
Shaw Comm Cl.B (SJR.B)                          2   2   2   4   5    5
BCE (BCE)                                       3   3   4   4   5    5
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                      4   4   3   2   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                             P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D  VR
============================================== === === === === === =====
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   3   5   5   0.5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                          5   5   5   1   5   1.4
Thomson (TOC)                                   5   4   2   2   4   1.9
National Bank of Canada (NA)                    3   4   5   5   5   2.5
Royal Bank (RY)                                 4   3   4   5   5   2.5
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                       4   3   4   2   5   2.6
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)                      4   4   3   2   4   2.8
Telus (T)                                       3   4   4   5   5   3.2
BCE (BCE)                                       3   3   4   4   5   3.4
Sun Life (SLF)                                  4   5   4   1   4   3.5
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                                  P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
============================================== === === === ====== ======
ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. (ACE.B)              5   5   0   92.78 330.15
MDS Inc. (MDS)                                  5   5   0   47.26 172.39
Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)                 5   5   0   18.39 141.36
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   5   19.60  58.33
Thomson (TOC)                                   5   4   4   55.72  53.08
Magna Cl.A (MG.A)                               4   5   3  104.55  49.34
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                          5   5   5   50.34  25.31
Petro Canada (PCA)                              5   4   2   53.97  16.89
Sun Life (SLF)                                  4   5   4   49.40  10.38
Canadian Pacific Rail (CP)                      4   4   2   70.08   7.70
Canadian Tire Corporation Limited (CTC.A)       4   4   2   66.19   5.46
Talisman Energy (TLM)                           5   3   2   18.22   5.23
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 

*Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml 

Switch to the HTML version if the tables aren't formatted properly.
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Books for Stingy Investors

A Random Walk Down Wall Street
by Burton G. Malkiel

Take a random walk down Wall Street and you'll learn a great deal
about market history and current market theory. This book
provides an excellent introduction to the markets and gives readers a
good grounding in the efficient market hypothesis. Along the
way Malkiel makes a very strong case for indexing but even active
investors will find a great deal of useful information in his
book.
Amazon Link: http://www.amazon.ca/exec/obidos/ASIN/0393325350/


Stock Research From Dan Hallett & Associates

The Rothery Report
http://www.rotheryreport.com/ 

The Rothery Report provides research on select deep-value stocks in
North America. Discover overlooked and undervalued stocks in quarterly
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U.S. stocks.  Weekly email news and additional updates keep
subscribers informed about new opportunities and developments.

Rothery Report Performance (03/31/2001 to 12/31/2007)
  Average Capital Gain    Average Holding Period
          45.2%                   2.4 Years

Learn More
http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/store.shtml

Subscribe Today
http://www.rotheryreport.com/store/order.shtml 



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ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Dan Hallett and Associates Inc., 2008.
All rights reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not
appropriate for all investors. Consult your professional investment
advisor before making any investment decision.  While all reasonable
effort is made to ensure the accuracy of information and data
contained herein, accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is
not a good predictor of future performance.  Results are not
guaranteed and we assume no liability whatsoever for any material
losses that may occur.  No compensation for suggesting particular
securities or financial advisors is solicited or accepted.  The
information in this newsletter, and in its related website, is not
intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or
recommendations.  Investing in stocks can be risky and may result in
substantial losses.  A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc.(DH&A)
publication.  DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province
of Ontario. DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the
securities mentioned.

 

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Disclaimers: Consult with a qualified investment advisor before trading. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. If you need personalized financial advice then please consider our private client services. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way.

A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. publication. Norm Rothery, Ph.D., CFA, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. (DH&A) and the founder of StingyInvestor.com. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. Norm, DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. More...