"A pack of lemmings looks like a group of rugged individualists
compared with Wall Street when it gets a concept in its teeth."  - Warren Buffett


Stingy Links
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/articles/articlearchive.shtml

Dividends: A world of smart yield plays
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2008/pi20080221_752597.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives
"In the ongoing search for income investments, many U.S. investors are
seeking yield instruments overseas. That's because foreign companies are
increasingly initiating or boosting dividend payments. As of Feb. 13, the
dividend yield on the S&P Euro 350 index was 3.2%, vs. a 2.1% yield for the S&P
500. And it's not just Europe. Stocks in Asia and emerging markets are
also increasingly paying dividends."

Miscalculating the risks
https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20080223/RCOVER23
"Inside his boardroom, Prem Watsa keeps an unusual artifact: a bronze bust
of Sir John Templeton, the 95-year-old legend of value investing. The item
was a 50th birthday gift for the chairman of Fairfax Financial Holdings
Ltd., but also serves as a source of inspiration. The Templeton principles,
after all, underpin much of Fairfax's investment philosophy: Be flexible;
search around the world for the best bargains; and above all else, go
against the crowd - buy when others are pessimistic, and sell when optimism
rules. It's the last of these that led Mr. Watsa - until recently one of
the most beleaguered executives on Bay Street - to one of the most stunning
investments of his career, and has given him a way to silence his many
critics. Fairfax this week disclosed an annual profit of $1.1-billion (U.S.)
for 2007, nearly four times what the insurance and investment company had
earned in its best year the year before. Much of that was the result of a
single, contrarian bet the firm made that the world had got it wrong about
risk."

Rising dividends are great
https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20080222/RHEINZL22
"We love dividends. When we're having a bad day, nothing warms our soul
like a juicy dividend increase. We're shallow that way. But not so shallow
that we can't tolerate some dissension from people who actually have the
temerity to argue that dividend increases maybe aren't the best use of a
company's capital. And then these same people have the nerve to back up their
case with cold, hard facts. When we looked at the title of the Thomson
Financial report - "Baby, we got your dividend: What company actions do
investors reward most?" - we were certain it would offer a ringing endorsement
of our favourite investing strategy: Buying shares of companies that
increase their dividends. So imagine our shock when the report told a different
story. As you'll see, it doesn't suggest that dividend increases, per se,
are a bad thing, but it does indicate that investors should pay attention
to more than just the amount of cash companies pay out to shareholders,
for dividend hikes can sometimes be a smokescreen for companies that are
digging themselves into a hole."

Don't rerun that '70s show
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/opinion/22krugman.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
"Will the next president be the second coming of Jimmy Carter? Given
Thursday's economic headlines, full of dire warnings about the return of
1970s-style stagflation, you might think so. Realistically, though, the parallels
between the problems facing the U.S. economy now and those of the
late-1970s aren't that strong. That's the good news. The bad news is that the
economy probably will look similar to, but worse than, the economy that undid
the first President Bush. And it's all too easy to see how the next
president could suffer a political fate resembling that of both the elder Mr.
Bush and Mr. Carter."

Watsa says credit squeeze still in 'early days'
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=agn.SVcOi0VM&refer=canada
"Fairfax, which owns Canadian and U.S. insurers, said earlier today that
fourth-quarter net income tripled to $563.6 million, or $30.15 a share, from
$159.1 million, or $8.45 a share, a year earlier. Annual profit more than
quadrupled to $1.1 billion, the Toronto-based company said. Fairfax had
gains of $705.2 million in the quarter after the company bought
credit-default swaps to profit from asset writedowns at U.S. banks. Losses and
writedowns among the world's largest financial companies have risen to at least
$146 billion after the subprime mortgage market collapsed amid record loan
defaults. Watsa, 57, said there are more losses to come."

California exodus turns to stampede
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=56876
"Based on data from moving companies, California had the second-highest
domestic population out-flow of any state in 2005, according to the report,
"despite the beautiful weather, beaches, and mountains." The bad news for
California is that it faces a $14 billion deficit this year, despite
boasting one of the highest tax burdens in the nation. The report, published by
the American Legislative Exchange Council shows jobs are not just leaving
the country - they are moving from state to state, with the population
following. "States are in direct competition with each other for human
capital and business investment. State governments that think they can attract
jobs and people, and grow their economies, by taxing their citizens at a
higher rate than their neighbors are sadly mistaken," said Democratic
Arkansas state Sen. Steve Faris, ALEC's 2008 national chairman."

Rich states poor states
http://www.alec.org/fileadmin/newPDF/ALEC_Competitiveness_Index.pdf
"State Winners and Losers, details the migration of thousands of Americans
from areas with high tax burdens to places where they can experience
greater economic freedom. States with a high propensity to tax and spend are fi
nding their most wealthy and productive citizens moving across borders
into areas that impose less of a financial burden."

The complete guide to free stock screen tools
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/partners/free/globeinvestor/stock/freestock.html
"There are a growing number of free stock screen tools on the Web, but
trying to decide among the many available could be the cause of a headache or
two. It would help to have a guide. Hence, the following survey: It
describes some of the better packages with the help of reviews and experienced
users."

Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity
http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/documents/areas/fac/finance/06-06.pdf
"This study analyzes the role that two psychological attributes - sensation
seeking and overconfidence - play in the tendency of investors to trade
stocks. Equity trading data from Finland are combined with data from
investor tax filings, driving records, and mandatory psychological profiles. We
use these data, obtained from a large population, to construct measures of
overconfidence and sensation seeking tendencies. Controlling for a host
of variables, including wealth, income, age, number of stocks owned,
marital status, and occupation, we find that overconfident investors and those
investors most prone to sensation seeking trade more frequently."

Subprime loans defaulting even before resets
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/20/real_estate/loans_failing_pre_resets/index.htm?postversion=2008022010
"During the boom, rapid price appreciation meant borrowers built up home
equity quickly. That minimized defaults, since owners could draw from that
equity to pay their bills - including their mortgages - through home equity
loans. But prices fell starting in 2006,leaving borrowers with less home
equity to draw upon when they run into financial problems. Median home
prices fell 5.8 percent nationally, and by double digits in many areas. That,
along with the deterioration in underwriting, changed the default math.
Owners with mortgages worth more than their homes simply began walking away
from their homes when costs become unmanageable."

Momentum and credit rating
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=739324
"This paper establishes a robust link between momentum and credit rating.
Momentum profitability is large and significant among low-grade firms, but
it is nonexistent among high-grade firms. The momentum payoffs documented
in the literature are generated by low-grade firms that account for less
than 4% of the overall market capitalization of rated firms. The momentum
payoff differential across credit rating groups is unexplained by firm
size, firm age, analyst forecast dispersion, leverage, return volatility, and
cash flow volatility."


S&P/TSX60 Value Screens
http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy.shtml 

High Dividend Yield Stocks                     P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D Yield*
============================================== === === === === === ======
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   2   5   5    5
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                          3   4   3   4   5    5
CIBC (CM)                                       5   4   4   3   5    5
National Bank of Canada (NA)                    3   4   4   3   5    5
BCE (BCE)                                       3   3   3   4   5    5
Telus (T)                                       3   4   3   4   5    5
Royal Bank (RY)                                 4   3   3   2   5    5
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                       4   3   2   2   5    5
TransCanada (TRP)                               3   3   2   3   5    5
Shaw Comm Cl.B (SJR.B)                          2   4   3   4   4    4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/dogs.shtml 

Value Ratio Stocks                             P/E P/B P/S P/C P/D  VR
============================================== === === === === === =====
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   2   5   5   0.6
CIBC (CM)                                       5   4   4   3   5   1.4
Thomson (TOC)                                   5   4   2   3   4   1.7
Bank of Montreal (BMO)                          3   4   3   4   5   2.5
Royal Bank (RY)                                 4   3   3   2   5   3.0
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS)                       4   3   2   2   5   3.0
BCE (BCE)                                       3   3   3   4   5   3.1
Husky Energy (HSE)                              5   2   4   5   4   3.2
National Bank of Canada (NA)                    3   4   4   3   5   3.2
Telus (T)                                       3   4   3   4   5   3.4
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/valueratio.shtml 

Graham Stocks                                  P/E P/B P/D   G$   dG$(%)
============================================== === === === ====== ======
ACE Aviation Holdings Inc. (ACE.B)              5   5   0   65.87 168.10
MDS Inc. (MDS)                                  5   5   0   40.88 149.28
Lundin Mining Corporation (LUN)                 5   5   0   16.93 115.99
Thomson (TOC)                                   5   4   4   48.91  38.96
Biovail (BVF)                                   5   5   5   19.00  36.11
Magna Cl.A (MG.A)                               4   5   3   99.55  24.91
CIBC (CM)                                       5   4   5   78.77  16.51
Petro Canada (PCA)                              5   4   2   49.91   5.18
Sun Life (SLF)                                  4   5   4   49.33   2.87
Talisman Energy (TLM)                           5   3   2   17.26   2.62
More Info: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/graham.shtml 

*Notes: http://www.stingyinvestor.com/SI/strategy/notes.shtml 

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ISSN 1499-2795 Copyright Dan Hallett and Associates Inc., 2008.
All rights reserved. The securities mentioned in this report are not
appropriate for all investors. Consult your professional investment
advisor before making any investment decision.  While all reasonable
effort is made to ensure the accuracy of information and data
contained herein, accuracy can not be guaranteed. Past performance is
not a good predictor of future performance.  Results are not
guaranteed and we assume no liability whatsoever for any material
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information in this newsletter, and in its related website, is not
intended to be, nor does it constitute, financial advice or
recommendations.  Investing in stocks can be risky and may result in
substantial losses.  A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc.(DH&A)
publication.  DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province
of Ontario. DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the
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