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Norm Speaks








Stingy Selections & Dartboard Dynamos 03

Last year I attempted to achieve success by hand picking twelve value stocks from the S&P500. Well, I managed to avoid the success part. My twelve picks lost an average of 1.92% from December 5, 2001 to December 5, 2002. Mind you, this was much better than the S&P500 which fell by 22.12% over the same period. Normally outperforming the index by 20.20% would be cause for celebration but a loss is still a loss. To add insult to injury, the stocks selected by my trusty dartboard gained 2.87% over the same period.

Last year's stingy picks: Alberto-Culver (ACV), Allegheny Technologies (ATI), Cardinal Health (CAH), CVS Corp (CVS), Engelhard (EC), FedEx (FDX), Humana (HUM), SYSCO Corp (SYY), VF Corp (VFC), W.W. Grainger (GWW), WellPoint Health Networks (WLP) and Worthington Industries (WOR).

Last year's dartboard picks: Alberto-Culver (ACV), Big Lots (BLI), Burlington Resources (BR), Charter One Financial (CF), Citizens Communications Co (CZN), FMC Corp (FMC) HCA Inc. (HCA), Hercules Inc (HPC), Lincoln National Corp (LNC), Meredith Corp (MDP), UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Zions Bancorp (ZION).

Undaunted by my crushing defeat, I've selected a new list of stingy picks. This year, I'm sticking to S&P500 stocks with debt-to-equity ratios of less than 0.5, current ratios of more than two, and interest coverage ratios of more than two. Also, I demand positive cash flow, some earnings and a price-to-sales ratio of less than one.

With the aid of the MSN.com stock screener, ten stocks were found that passed my tests on December 5, 2002. I should note that I currently own shares in Apple Computer due to its very strong balance sheet.

Stingy Picks: Apple Computer (AAPL), Circuit City Group (CC), Crane Co. (CR), Dollar General Corporation (DG), Limited Brands, Inc. (LTD), Liz Claiborne, Inc (LIZ), Nucor (NUE), Quintiles Transnational Corp. (QTRN), Reebok International Ltd. (RBK) and VF Corporation (VFC).

My nemesis is back with ten picks from S&P500.

The Dartboard's picks: AFLAC Incorporated (AFL), AmerisourceBergen Corporation (ABC), Bank of New York Company (BK), Chiron Corporation (CHIR), Consolidated Edison (ED), Fiserv (FISV), Illinois Tool Works (ITW), KeySpan Corporation (KSE), QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) and United Technologies Corporation (UTX)

Which portfolio will win? Value or blind luck? Only time will tell.

Date: Jan 2003

 

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Disclaimers: Consult with a qualified investment advisor before trading. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance. The information on this site, and in its related newsletters, is not intended to be, nor does it constitute, investment advice or recommendations. If you need personalized financial advice then please consider our private client services. The information on this site is in no way guaranteed for completeness, accuracy or in any other way.

A Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. publication. Norm Rothery, Ph.D., CFA, is the Chief Investment Strategist at Dan Hallett and Associates Inc. (DH&A) and the founder of StingyInvestor.com. DH&A is registered as Investment Counsel in the province of Ontario. Norm, DH&A, or related-parties may have an interest in the securities mentioned. More...